Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
030 FXUS64 KCRP 180550 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 - Monitoring daily elevated fire weather potential over the Brush Country through the week and into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 Little overall change is expected through the period as only subtle shifts occur in the center position of the mid-level high. South Texas will remain beneath the influence of the ridge with the center over the Desert SW, maintaining hot and predominately dry conditions. Very low rain chances will remain possible along the sea breeze each afternoon, though measurable rainfall is not anticipated. Toward the end of the forecast period, PVA rounding the periphery of the high may provide somewhat better support for convection and a slight increase in rain chances. Temperatures will remain largely unchanged, with afternoon highs generally ranging from the 90s across the Coastal Bend to around 100- 105 degrees across the Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. Overnight lows will generally remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Peak heat indices of 105 to around 110 are expected each afternoon, maintaining moderate to major HeatRisk across much of South Texas. Pockets of extreme HeatRisk may develop across portions of the Brush Country this weekend. With little relief from the heat expected, continued heat safety precautions will be necessary throughout the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 VFR CIGS/Vis noted at issuance time, but confidence isn`t great on how widespread MVFR will get overnight. Some guidance suggests similar to last night while other guidance is much more favorable in terms of flight categories. Will lean toward similar conditions to last night as in the big picture overall conditions have not changed much, so unsure why it`d be better than last night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 Persistent onshore flow will remain generally gentle to moderate (BF 3-4), with occasional fresh (BF-5) flow possible during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Seas should remain relatively steady around 2-3 ft with no significant marine hazards anticipated. Rain chances will remain very low through the weekend, with a potential increase early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 Elevated fire weather concerns will continue, particularly across the Brush Country, as hot and dry conditions persist. Minimum RH values will briefly fall into the mid 20s for several hours each afternoon across the Brush Country. ERC values remain within the 70th-89th percentile, while maximum RFTI values remain around 2. Although widespread critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated, the combination of low afternoon humidity, increasingly dry fuels, and hot temperatures will maintain an elevated fire weather risk through much of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 99 75 99 76 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 103 77 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 101 73 101 75 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 92 80 92 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 103 77 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 74 99 76 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...PH/83