722
FXUS64 KCRP 121051
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
551 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Moderate to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large
  portion of South Texas today through early next week.

- Heat Advisory in effect from Noon to 6 PM today.

- Low to very low rain chances today through early next week, then
  increasing a medium chance across the Victoria Crossroads by mid
  week.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions today and remains possible
  through Monday, mainly across the inland Coastal Plains, Brush
  Country and Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Main concern through the weekend continues to be the heat. Heat
indices up to 114 are forecast across many locations this afternoon.
Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued from Noon to 6 pm for most of
S TX. A few places may briefly exceed 115, but most places will
remain below 115. Major to extreme risk of heat related impacts will
continue into early next week and Heat Advisories may be needed at
times.

Less moisture and mid level ridging across northeastern Mexico and
west TX will lead to very low rain chances today. Rain chances
increase slightly Sunday in response to the ridge being nudged
northward as an inverted trough shifts west across S TX. This will
allow for a slightly more active sea breeze. Isolated sea breeze
convection is expected early next week with the potential for
increased activity by mid to late week. Models have been varying on
which day has the best chance of rain, but it does look like
sometime between Wednesday and Friday may see medium to high rain
chances in response to a surge of deep moisture from the gulf waters
combined with a mid level short wave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Early morning MVFR ceilings have developed over the inland Coastal
Plains, mainly impacting ALI. We`ll see these ceilings continue
over the next couple of hours before lifting. VFR conditions
prevail elsewhere. Southeasterly winds will increase later this
morning through afternoon, sustained 15-20 knots with gusts up to
30 knots, strongest at CRP. Winds decrease to around 10 knots
overnight. Given the similar conditions tomorrow morning, also put
TEMPOs for MVFR ceilings at ALI at the end of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A fresh (BF 5) breeze is expected south of Port Aransas across
Corpus Christi and Baffin Bays and out to 20 nautical miles this
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays and
nearshore waters south of Port Aransas through this evening.
Otherwise, a moderate (BF 4) onshore flow is expected Sunday through
the middle of next week. Low rain chances can be expected this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Minimum relative humidity is expected to drop to around 25% across
the inland Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains this
afternoon. Wind speeds do not increase until this evening across
these areas at the same time RH values increase. However, due to the
dryness and the ERC at 75-90% percentile, a Fire Danger Statement
has been issued for this afternoon.  Elevated fire weather
conditions will be possible at times through the period. The chance
of wetting rains returns Monday, with up to a 40% chance across the
Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise, rain chances will be low through
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  80  96  80 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria         100  77  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
Laredo           106  79 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            103  77 101  76 /  10   0  10   0
Rockport          94  82  94  82 /  10   0  20   0
Cotulla          105  78 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville       101  78  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       92  83  91  83 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ230>234-240>247-342>344-346.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ231-232-250.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94