997
FXUS64 KCRP 101943
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
243 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Coastal Flooding expected during high tides through Sunday night

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The main storyline will be of the forecast will be the continued
threat of coastal flooding. Continued northeast flow and increasing
swell periods will result in higher than normal water levels
resulting in coastal flooding with up to 1.5 feet of beach
inundation. Water level reached the dune at many sites with
yesterdays high tide and impacts are expected to spread into the
bays tonight with the next high tide cycle impacting locations like
North Beach and Ingleside by the bay. Swell periods will increase
from 6 to 7 seconds for tonight and to 8 seconds for Saturday and
Sunday night. With the higher swell periods the more impactful the
coastal flooding event will be. The P-ETSS model is showing water
levels reaching between 2.3-2.6 feet above Mean Sea Level every
night at time of high tides through Sunday night. As we head into
early next week, swell periods are expected to decrease to 4-6
seconds which will help tame the threat of coastal flooding.

Other than that, above normal temperatures are expected across South
Texas with only slim chances (less than 10%) for rain through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected across all sites for this TAF cycle
with a low chance for MVFR conditions at ALI and VCT due to
patchy fog. Winds will be somewhat gusty in the afternoon and
light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A moderate northeast breeze (BF 4) is expected through tonight
before decreasing to a gentle breeze (BF 3). A moderate southeast
breeze (BF 4) is expected to develop Monday. Slim rain chances (less
than 10%) are expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

While conditions will be drier this weekend into next week with
minimum relative humidity values ranging from 25-35% Saturday and
Sunday, winds will be relatively calm which should help limit the
chances for elevated fire weather conditions. The best day for the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions will be Saturday
where the area for critically low relative humidity values will be
found coinciding with Energy Release Component values in the 55-85th
percentiles. Minimum relative humidity values will improve Monday
and Tuesday before dropping again Wednesday to the 25-35% range
across all of South Texas except the Coastal Bend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    67  90  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          60  91  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            68  93  67  93 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             64  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          70  89  72  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           66  95  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        64  91  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  86  74  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...JCP/84