312
FXUS64 KCRP 131110
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
610 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Minor Coastal Flooding possible during high tide through Monday
night into to Tuesday morning.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk will continue Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Minor coastal flooding will continue through Monday morning. A
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 11 AM.

Swell periods are forecast to decrease through the day, winds will
be mostly southeast 10-15 knots across the waters, and a new moon is
still days away. All of which are not conducive for minor coastal
flooding. The Nearshore Wave Prediction System does not indicate
minor flooding for Monday night/Tuesday. However, the P-ETSS does
indicate tide levels slightly above 2ft MSL through Tuesday during
times of high tide. The P-ETSS shows a downward trend over the next
few days. Confidence is low that there will be minor coastal
flooding Monday night/Tuesday morning, but it remains possible that
water will reach the dunes in some locations. Will continue to
monitor tide levels and swell periods for the possibility of needing
another Coastal Flood Advisory Monday night.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk is expected to continue Monday, but
should be decreasing Monday night and Tuesday to a Low Risk due to
swell periods dropping to 4-6 seconds.

Another dry day in store for Monday as the high pressure aloft
continues to dominate the weather. Rain chances will remain very low
(<5%) through Monday. Models indicate that the high pressure will
move northeast of the area as a mid level inverted trough approaches
the TX coast from the east on Tuesday. A surge of deeper moisture
with PWATs increasing to 1.5-1.8 inches will skirt the southern
Coastal Bend to the Southern Brush Country through the day Tuesday.
This will be sufficient for a low to medium (10-30%) chance of
showers by Tuesday afternoon. This will be short-lived as drier air
with PWATs dropping to around 1 inch is expected Wednesday.

The next shot at rainfall will be Friday and Saturday across the
Victoria Crossroads, but the chance will be low (10-20%). This is in
response to the inverted trough being absorbed northward by a long
wave trough tracking east across the CONUS combined with a surge of
moisture into the Victoria Crossroads. Better chances will be north
and east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A few streaks of MVFR ceilings have developed over the inland
Coastal Plains, mainly impacting the ALI to CRP area over the next
couple of hours as they move north-northeast before VFR
conditions prevail across all of South Texas. We need to keep a
close eye around the Rio Grande Plains for any MVFR development
this morning, but so far the low clouds have remained well south
along the Rio Grande into southern Zapata County. Light
southeasterly winds will strengthen to 10-15 knots with gusts
around 20 knots later this afternoon and evening before weakening
to less than 5 knots overnight. This will raise dewpoints and
under mostly clear skies, will allow for medium chances for fog
development over the inland Coastal Plains and medium chances for
MVFR ceiling development over the Brush Country (LRD/COT/ALI)
near the end of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A gentle to moderate east-southeast breeze (BF 3-4) can be expected
Monday through Tuesday, becoming a gentle breeze (BF 3) by mid week.
Low (5-20%) rain chances expected Monday night and Tuesday, mainly
Baffin Bay eastward. A low (10-20%) chance of showers expected again
by next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% through most of
the period and the ERC forecast will be at 70-90th percentile
across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. However, a
generally weak east to southeast wind should preclude any fire
weather threats. The chance for wetting rains is low (5-20%)
Tuesday across the southern Coastal Bend to the southern Brush
Country.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  73  87  67 /   0  10  10   0
Victoria          89  63  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            93  71  91  69 /   0   0  20   0
Alice             92  68  90  64 /   0   0  20   0
Rockport          88  73  88  69 /   0   0  10   0
Cotulla           93  69  91  66 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        89  70  87  64 /   0  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       85  77  85  74 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94