Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
455 FXUS64 KCRP 011119 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 619 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms today, continuing into Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the cards today, aided by forecast PWATs near 2 inches, the stalling of a weak frontal boundary, and periodic mid-level shortwaves passing overhead and providing additional lift. Similar to yesterday, storms will continue to focus along and east of the Coastal Plains through tonight, though some convection could extend farther west into the Brush Country today based on current CAM guidance. Current guidance is also unfortunately still split on the evolution of available moisture this far south. Additionally, CRP sounding PWATs have been measuring slightly lower than the model PWATs. NBM PoPs are still coming in too high for my liking given all this uncertainty, so lowered them a bit this forecast package. Rain chances do remain highest across the Coastal Plains (40-60%) and lower farther inland (20-40%). Given the forecast moisture and slow storm motions, localized flash flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. WPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across South Texas today and tonight. While today`s rainfall totals will generally range between 0.25-0.50 inches as indicated by ensemble 50th percentile 24-hour QPF guidance, localized pockets of higher totals are possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Rain chances diminish late on Tuesday as the aforementioned boundary drifts southward and drier air filters into the region from the north. From midweek onward, a return to hotter and drier conditions is expected with highs climbing back into the mid-90s near the coast and near 100 inland by Wednesday and Thursday. Heat safety will once again become the primary concern through late week. There is some model guidance that suggests that another disturbance may try and move through the region this weekend, bringing with it additional low to medium chances (30-40%) for rain. However, this is almost a week from now, and more time will be needed to continue to monitor model trends in order to refine this forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered showers and a few storms are noted in a broken line from around RAS to PEZ this morning, affecting areas between CRP/ALI and VCT. Expect an increase in coverage or convection through the afternoon hours. Convection should wane this evening as daytime heating ends. Some areas of reduces CIGS this morning, mainly at VCT to IFR. Expect CIGS to rise by mid-morning with predominant VFR conditions expected most of the day. MVFR CIGS and reduced VIS will be possible in and around showers and storms. Some storms this afternoon could produce gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) east-southeast winds this afternoon and evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) north-northeast winds tonight through Wednesday afternoon. A medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will return to onshore flow late Wednesday/early Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 76 93 75 / 50 40 30 0 Victoria 91 72 95 72 / 40 20 20 0 Laredo 98 77 98 75 / 40 50 30 10 Alice 94 75 96 72 / 40 40 30 0 Rockport 90 77 93 77 / 50 40 30 10 Cotulla 93 75 98 74 / 50 30 20 0 Kingsville 94 75 94 72 / 50 40 40 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 90 80 / 60 40 40 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...PH/83