Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
857 FXUS64 KCRP 291128 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 628 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - Low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late in the weekend and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances for rain are Sunday and Monday. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts today and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Rain chances remain very low again today (under 10%) as subsidence beneath a mid- to upper-level ridge suppresses convection. The main concern heading into the holiday weekend will be heat, with the hottest conditions of the period expected today and Saturday. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 90s to low 100s, and heat indices will peak between 105-112 deg F. The most significant impacts are expected across the Brush Country, where a Major (level 3 of 4) heat risk is forecast and localized Extreme (level 4 of 4) risk is possible in portions of La Salle and McMullen counties. A more Moderate (level 2 of 4) risk is expected across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. With many folks likely spending time outdoors this Labor Day weekend, heat safety remains crucial. Remember to stay hydrated, take breaks in the shade, and limit prolonged exposure. More safety guidance can be found at weather.gov/heat . By late in the weekend into early next week, the ridge axis will shift westward, opening the door for weak shortwave disturbances to track south along its eastern side. Combined with deep moisture (PWATs of 2 inches or more) and a stationary boundary lingering across Texas, this will support the return of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast. Low rain chances (~20%) come into play for the Victoria Crossroads on Saturday before increasing to more low to moderate chances (20-60%) Sunday and Monday region- wide. This environment has a low potential to support storms with elevated rain rates. Therefore, WPC has continued to highlight much of South Texas under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday, with localized flash flooding possible in poor drainage or low-lying areas. Rainfall probabilities diminish slightly (20-40%) Tuesday as the boundary moves through, followed by drier conditions midweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Vis reductions have not happened at ALI or VCT so far this morning, but will leave the mention in for the potential of some fog around sunrise at either location. Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period with light winds this morning becoming moderate behind the sea breeze this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A very low chance of showers and thunderstorms (less than 10%) will continue today. Chances for precipitation will increase to low to medium (20-60%) late Saturday through Monday, then diminish once again by the middle of the week. South-southeasterly winds will be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 98 75 97 75 / 10 0 30 20 Laredo 105 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 93 80 93 79 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 104 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...PH/83