273
FXUS64 KCRP 010554
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1254 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Flash flood watch in effect Thursday afternoon through
Friday. Heavy rain expected at times across all of South Texas.

- Marginal risk of severe weather Thursday and Thursday night.
  Strong winds are the primary threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The remnants of hurricane Polo have merged with a deep trough over
the western US and a cut-off low is not prominent over Colorado and
New Mexico. At the surface, a cold front is developing associated
with this system and will push eastward over the next couple of
days. There is still considerable uncertainty in how exactly the
rain plays out and how quickly the front moves through. The
probability of a morning round of convection appears to be
decreasing based on current radar/satellite trends and how models
are initializing.  Most high res models have either given up on the
morning line completely or at least backed off on how much
convection there will be. That said, will keep mainly low end (20-
30%) pops for the morning with the exception of western parts of
Webb and LaSalle county where things could start ramping up a bit
earlier. The best potential for convection will be in the afternoon
and overnight hours today and tonight with daytime heating and the
mid-level low/trough moving closer. Regardless of when and where the
rain occurs, with PWAT values nearly off the charts, the rain will
fall very fast and heavy when it falls.  PWAT value on the 18Z CRP
sounding was 2.41", down a bit to 2.28" at the 00Z sounding.  These
are well above the 90th percentile in climatology and around the
daily Max values. CRP almost certainly tops the current max value
for tomorrow which is an outlier low record of 2.09". These high
moisture levels are capable of producing rainfall rates 2-3"/hr,
with isolated cells producing even higher rates. Probabilities of 48
hour rainfall through Friday over 3" are moderate to high over the
western portions of the area, but not out of the question east with
any given slow-moving storm capable of dumping that much.

The forecast struggle does not end after the Thursday/Thursday night
rains, as the convergence line (stalled boundary) is likely to set
up near the coast and keep rain chances going through the weekend,
potentially into early next week, but this would be mainly along the
immediate coast and into the marine areas. We also will see a couple
of tropical waves move through the Gulf further enhancing moisture.
Bottom line, it`s going to rain...potentially a lot...and the
forecast is still pretty tricky.

Taking a moment to talk temperatures, today is tricky...but with the
lower probability of a morning round of convection, temps will
likely once again be in the mid and upper 90s for most of the area.
If convection begins earlier, this could certainly fall with some
areas not getting out of the 80s.  Speaking of 80s...it looks like a
lot of highs in the 80s for the foreseeable future, finally getting
back to normal or slightly below.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR are expected throughout this TAF cycle with
showers and thunderstorm impacting all sites at some point. The
best shot for morning convection will be at LRD and COT with the
eastern sites expecting to begin firing up in the afternoon. Winds
will remain gusty for most of this forecast with some sites
getting under 12 knots for the last few hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south to southeast flow will continue
this morning. Small craft should exercise caution tonight. Winds
weaken to moderate levels this afternoon, and weaken further to
gentle levels friday, shifting to the north behind a weak boundary.
There will be a low to medium chance for showers and storms
today, increasing tonight through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the
period. Increasing moisture will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms starting today through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will be possible across all of South Texas, with
widespread wetting rainfall expected to limit fire weather concerns
through the latter half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  77  89  75 /  60  80  90  70
Victoria          97  74  90  71 /  80  90  90  50
Laredo            96  74  85  71 /  80  80  90  90
Alice             97  74  89  71 /  80  90  90  70
Rockport          93  77  90  75 /  60  80  90  70
Cotulla           93  73  83  70 /  90  90  80  90
Kingsville        96  76  90  73 /  70  80  90  70
Navy Corpus       91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday evening
     for TXZ229>232-239>244.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...JCP/84