Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
152 FXUS64 KCRP 301116 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Low to medium (30-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late in the weekend and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Rain chances remain minimal again today (generally <15%, with a 20% chance up in the Crossroads) as strong subsidence under a mid- to upper-level ridge continues to suppress convective development. Heat remains the primary concern this holiday weekend, with the hottest conditions expected today and Sunday. Highs will reach the upper 90s in the Coastal Bend to the low 100s across the Coastal Plains and westward. Heat indices will climb into the 105-112 degF range. The most significant impacts are anticipated over the Brush Country, where a Major (level 3 of 4) heat risk is forecast, and an isolated Extreme (level 4 of 4) risk cannot be ruled out in parts of La Salle and McMullen counties. Elsewhere, a Moderate (level 2 of 4) risk will extend into the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. With many residents likely outdoors for the Labor Day weekend, practicing heat safety will be critical. Please remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and avoid prolonged direct sun exposure. Additional safety tips are available at weather.gov/heat . By late this weekend into early next week, the ridge axis is expected to shift westward allowing weak shortwave disturbances to ride down its eastern side. Along with abundant moisture (PWATs greater than 2 inches) and a stalled boundary across the region, this setup will bring increasing chances for measurable rain beginning late Sunday across the Victoria Crossroads and the northern Coastal Plains, with broader low to moderately high probabilities (30-70%) expanding region-wide Monday into Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is split on how much available moisture, and therefore precipitation, there will be this far south on Sunday, so I lowered PoPs a bit to reflect this. Some storms may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, and WPC continues to highlight northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday before including most of South Texas until 12Z Tuesday. Rain chances begin to taper off by late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the boundary gradually pushes through, with drier conditions expected mid-to-late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Noticing some minor vis reductions at ALI and VCT, but only to around 8 miles and expect them to most likely stay above 5 miles through the morning, though can`t rule out a brief drop. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through this forecast period. A very low chance for showers/storms at VCT terminal, but too low to include in TAFs. Moderate southeasterly winds develop behind the afternoon sea breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes along the southern bays and nearshore waters will continue through the weekend. Rain chances will become low to medium (20-60%) late Sunday through early Tuesday afternoon before diminishing as a boundary moves south through the waters. The boundary passage will shift winds to the north and bring in drier air. Onshore flow will return by Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 20 30 Victoria 98 76 95 73 / 20 20 50 40 Laredo 105 78 104 78 / 0 0 0 20 Alice 100 75 99 75 / 10 0 20 20 Rockport 92 80 93 78 / 10 10 30 40 Cotulla 103 78 101 77 / 0 0 10 30 Kingsville 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 20 20 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 81 / 0 0 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...PH/83