Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
778 FXUS64 KCRP 142306 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 506 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 503 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Isolated to areas of fog Saturday morning with visibilities down to 1/4 mile or less across the Coastal Plains/Victoria Crossroads. - Above average temperatures continue with near record to record highs early next week. - Moderate (40-60%) chances for rain return to the northern Coastal Plains and northern Coastal Bend Wed/Thu next week. Lower chances elsewhere. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Had some patchy dense fog this Friday morning over portions of the Coastal Plains where visibility at KVCT, Live Oak county airport and KALI dropped to 1/4 mile or less. Additional moisture advection today will lead to a 25% chance of areas of fog with < 1 mile visibilities and patchy dense fog 1/4 mile or less in some spots for Saturday morning. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) for fog may be needed. Owing to a persistent mid-level high to our south over eastern Mexico, ridging continues to build over South Texas promoting above average temperatures and dry conditions. The first half of next week will feel more like summer with low to mid 90s returning to large portions of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. Afternoon temperatures will approach and may reach record highs Sunday through Tuesday, especially in Laredo. A cooling trend is expected to begin Wednesday as an approaching upper level trough and an associated cold front approach the region. Slightly cooler temps and increased rain chances from this Pacific system will largely depend on how far south it tracks. Current deterministic guidance has the low moving across the Baja Peninsula northeastward over southern AZ and over the TX Panhandle with the front moving across our CWA towards the latter part of the week. Resulting in low end measurable precip across the region starting around mid-week. Timing and model uncertainty is still high this far out and changes to the forecast are likely. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 503 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Patchy fog is expected across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads as low level moisture continues to increase and light winds develop overnight. Have included a prevailing MVFR visibility for ALI and VCT with TEMPO groups for LIFR visibility from 11Z-15Z. Have also included TEMPO groups for LRD and COT for MVFR ceilings Saturday morning, however, confidence in this is low. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1217 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 A Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly breeze will slowly strengthen early next week becoming fresh to strong (BF 5-6) around midweek. Expecting heightened winds/seas in response to an approaching front, possibly persisting through the end of the work week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected around this time-frame. Rain/thunderstorm chances increase around mid-week, peaking to a moderate 50-60% chance Thursday across the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1217 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Despite ERC values near the 85th percentile across much of South Texas, light southeasterly winds generally 10 mph or less combined with minimum RH values 35-40% over the Brush Country and Coastal Plains will negate fire weather concerns. As moisture is expected to slowly increase throughout the first half of next week ahead of our next front, elevated fire weather is not expected through that time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 64 84 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 58 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 65 87 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 60 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 67 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 61 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 61 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 70 80 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...LS/77