Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
708 FXUS64 KCRP 031123 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 623 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 600 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Unseasonably hot through the end of the workweek - Increased rainfall chances return this weekend into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the work week with daily highs as much as 4-10 degrees above normal due to increased subsidence of a mid to upper level high pressure. By late this weekend however, rainfall chances and cloud cover are expected to increase which will help bring temperatures back down to more seasonable levels. Medium to high (50-70%) rain chances return to the forecast late next weekend into next week as models continue to show the eventual remnants of Lorena making it`s way into South Texas wrapping around the mid to upper level high pressure. While the exact amount of rainfall and locations of the heaviest rain are still a little cloudy, confidence on the presence of some kind of rainfall is increasing. Some models like the GFS are showing PWAT values between 2.5-2.8" while other like the ECMWF are showing PWAT values only between 2.2-2.5" coinciding the with the positive vorticity advection associated with the eventual remnants of Lorena. If we get higher PWAT values closer to what the GFS is showing, we can expect efficient rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. If we get a solution closer to the ECMWF, we could still see periods of heavy rainfall, but the impacts shouldn`t be as dire as if the higher PWAT scenario was to play out. All is all, it`s still to early to know all the details as far as location and expected rainfall amounts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Patchy fog has led to MVFR VIS this morning. Expect this to persist the next hour or two before clearing up. VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the period. Can`t rule out fog chances tonight, but guidance is not suggesting it at this time so will not include in this forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 A gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) is expected through the weekend into next week. Rain chances will quickly increase Friday night into Saturday to the 50-70% range with the wettest days expected to be Sunday and Monday, especially across the Gulf waters. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected in and heavier thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 98 72 101 74 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 102 77 106 77 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 100 73 101 73 / 10 10 0 0 Rockport 95 78 93 80 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 101 74 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 74 99 73 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 92 80 92 81 / 10 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...PH/83