847
FXUS64 KCRP 052342
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

- Hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal flooding. A
  Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through at least Monday
  evening. An extension is likely.

- Dangerous swimming conditions into early next week with a moderate
  to high rip current risk. Remember, "wave, yell, swim parallel!"

- Daily low (20-40%) chance of showers and storms through next work
  week. "When thunder roars, go indoors."

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A weak coastal trough and slightly above normal moisture will
support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40%)
across South Texas through early this week. Activity will
generally develop along the sea breeze each afternoon and diminish
overnight. Into midweek, weak ridging aloft is expected to
strengthen over the southern CONUS, leading to warm and mostly dry
conditions, with only low-end rain chances anticipated. Late in
the week, weak mid-level disturbances and pockets of deeper
moisture may continue to produce isolated showers near the coast,
but no widespread or impactful rainfall is expected. Temperatures
will remain above normal through the forecast period, with highs
in the low to mid-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper
60s inland to the mid-70s along the coast. A gradual increase in
humidity will make afternoons feel warmer as the week progresses.

Like the previous forecast package mentioned, we are going to
sound like a broken record here as marine and coastal hazards
will continue to be the main area of concern through much of the
upcoming week. A combination of astronomical high tides associated
with tomorrow`s full moon, long-period swells of 7-9 seconds, and
persistent onshore to northeasterly flow will keep water levels
elevated. These factors will likely bring water to the dunes,
particularly during times of high tide, prolonging the need for a
Coastal Flood Advisory through the next several days.
Additionally, rip currents will remain elevated. Beachgoers are
urged to exercise caution, as strong rip currents can occur even
under seemingly calm conditions, and low-lying beach roads may
become inundated near high tide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions currently prevail across South Texas and will
continue through majority of the overnight period. TEMPOs have
remained for brief periods of MVFR vsby over the Coastal Plains
(VCT/ALI) and MVFR cigs over COT. Latest model guidance show a low
(30%) chance for showers over the Coastal Bend after 08Z into the
morning hours, therefore a PROB30 has been included for CRP for
RA and slight vsby reduction. Winds become light and variable
overnight then remain generally less than 12 knots but shift out
of the southeast in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze (BF 3-4) the remainder
of today will shift to an east-southeasterly flow tonight. A
moderate to fresh east-northeasterly breeze (BF 4-5) redevelops
Wednesday and continues through Friday. Low (20-40%) shower and
thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Tuesday night
before increasing to low to moderate (30-50%) rain chances
beginning Wednesday into the remainder of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

An increase in onshore flow will keep minimum relative humidity
above 30% through this week. Sustained surface and 20 ft winds
will generally remain weak at less than 20 mph out of the
northeast to southeast. High temperatures will continue to run
above normal ranging from the low to mid 90s with daily low
(20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly along the coast
and portions of the Coastal Plains. Overall, critical fire
weather concerns are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  89  74  90 /  10  10  10  20
Victoria          68  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  30
Laredo            72  96  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             69  94  70  94 /  10  10   0  20
Rockport          74  88  76  89 /  10  20  10  20
Cotulla           70  95  72  95 /  20   0   0  10
Kingsville        70  91  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
Navy Corpus       77  86  78  87 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...EMF/94