Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
552 FXUS64 KCRP 012333 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 633 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 - Isolated to scattered flash flooding through early Friday morning, additional risk through this weekend - Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon through Sunday - Rainfall amounts generally 2-5" with greatest amounts over the Brush Country, locally higher amounts up to 10" && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 South Texas remains in a slight to moderate risk of excessive rainfall, leading to isolated to scattered flash flooding through early Friday morning, then dropping one category level Friday through early Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the Hill Country along an outflow driven boundary south of San Antonio ahead of the main cold front positioned over west-central Texas. Pre-frontal shower and thunderstorm cells and streamers are now starting to develop over South Texas, with plenty of instability to play with (SBCAPE > 3000 J/kg) and no cin. Deep warm cloud layer of over 10 kft and moisture near the 99th percentile (PWAT ~ 2.5") with low- level flow nearly parallel with the outflow, all favor efficient warm rain processes and training. Coverage is expected to increase the rest of today and continue through the overnight hours as the boundary north makes its way through South Texas and interacts with the seabreeze, nearly stalling through the night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday as the cold front approaches South Texas and a closed mid-level low over West Texas aids in mid-level lift support and moisture advection. The cold front will then push through Friday night into early Saturday morning, extending into Deep South Texas and producing a surface low just south of us over the western Gulf. The surface low will usher moisture over the passed cold front, providing overrunning showers and thunderstorms into the Coastal Bend Saturday morning, moving inland over the Coastal Plains through the day. We`ll see a similar pattern but not as aggressive on Sunday. The mid-level flow flattens out early next week, leading to lower rain chances Monday, then a lull in rain activity midweek. In regards to rain amounts, I do expect greatest accumulations to be focused over the Brush Country tonight through Friday, then the coverage will shift its focus over the Coastal Bend into the inland Coastal Plains this weekend as the front weakens and positions to our south, aided by a surface low. Currently, rainfall accumulations through Saturday afternoon generally range 2-5" west of I-35 and US- 77, with 1-3" east over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. I do expect there to be much higher local amounts, potentially reaching 10", greatest threat over the eastern Brush Country including Duval, McMullen, Live Oak, and Jim Wells counties as well as eastern Webb County. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Needless to say very messy and complex aviation forecast this evening/tonight. Main forecast concern will be thunderstorms and heavy rain which look likely to directly impact KALI and KVCT in the 00 to 05Z, direct impacts to KCRP are a little less certain but will have to be monitored. Confidence is lower in convection redevelopment over terminals Friday morning so will leave Prob30s at the moment. Winds will be highly variable due to thunderstorm outflows but generally be SErly at the coastal terminals and NErly inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Moderate to fresh onshore flow will continue through Friday, then weaken and shift out of the northeast Friday night into early Saturday morning behind a cold front. Northeasterly flow will strengthen to moderate to fresh Sunday and continue into the middle of next week. Rain chances increase tonight over the waters, then becoming medium to high Friday through Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. Increasing moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms starting today through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible across all of South Texas, with widespread wetting rainfall expected to limit fire weather concerns through the weekend && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 89 75 87 / 70 60 80 90 Victoria 73 91 71 89 / 80 80 70 80 Laredo 73 84 71 84 / 90 80 90 80 Alice 73 89 71 87 / 80 70 80 80 Rockport 77 91 75 89 / 70 70 70 90 Cotulla 72 83 71 82 / 80 80 90 80 Kingsville 75 89 73 87 / 70 70 70 90 Navy Corpus 80 88 79 86 / 70 60 80 90 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ229>234-239>244. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...NC/91