Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
184 FXUS64 KCRP 161806 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1206 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front later in the week. - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Wednesday, increasing to a medium to high chance (30-60%) across S TX on Thursday ahead of a cold front. - Small Craft Advisories possibly needed Wednesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 A ridge axis aloft continues to shift eastward across TX as a long wave trough digs southeastward into the Pacific NW and CA. This will lead to an increasingly southwest flow aloft with embedded short waves moving across TX. Models show a deepening mid/upper level low cutting off across the Desert Southwest by mid week leading to a tightening low level pressure gradient, thus moderate to strong southerly winds will develop across S TX, ushering deeper moisture into the area ahead of the next cold front. Uncertainty remains with respect to timing and strength of the cold front due to model discrepancies. For now, will keep NBM`s late Thursday night into Friday morning frontal passage across S TX. There is a low to medium chance for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads beginning Wednesday in response to increasing low level moisture and the approach of the upper level low. Chances increase across S TX to a medium to high chance (30-60%) on Thursday ahead of and along the cold front. Rain chances are expected to decrease from northwest to southeast through the day Friday as drier/cooler air advects into S TX. However, a low to medium (10- 30%) chance continues into the weekend possibly due to a second surge of high pressure with isentropic lift developing per some model solutions. Patchy to areas of fog can be expected each morning through early next week, mainly inland Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Brief periods of visibilities down to a 1/4 of a mile will be possible. S to SE winds will increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon with occasional gusts to around 20 knots. Light winds tonight will increase Monday afternoon to 10-20 knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots across mainly the eastern portions of S TX. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions expected this afternoon into tonight. Patchy to areas of fog will once again develop overnight leading to periods of IFR/LIFR conditions, mainly VCT to ALI with the other S TX TAF sites lowering to MVFR levels. && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 A south to southeast moderate (BF 4) breeze will persist through tonight before increasing to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze Monday afternoon. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday, increasing winds to fresh to strong late Wednesday through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary. Winds will diminish to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze and shift to the south and southwest Thursday night. Winds will shift to the east then northeast Friday as the cold front moves across the Coastal Waters. Rain chances increase the middle of next week ahead of the cold front, with a medium chance (40-70%) as the cold front moves through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1204 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Light to moderate southerly winds and continuing moisture advection will help limit fire weather concerns across South Texas. The winds are expected to strengthen through mid week ahead of a cold front, but afternoon RH values will be above 40% west to 60% east. The cold front is expected to move through S TX Thursday night into Friday morning. High ERC values and dry fuels are still in place, so caution is urged around any sparks or open flames. The next chance for rain will be the middle of the week as the cold front approaches South Texas. Behind the cold front, RH values will remain elevated along with a chance for wetting rains and lighter winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 86 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 65 87 65 87 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 68 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 65 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 70 82 71 83 / 0 10 0 0 Cotulla 66 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 66 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 81 73 81 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...TE/81