383
FXUS64 KCRP 031756
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

- Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM today for the inland
  Coastal Bend including Jim Wells county.

- Moderate to major heat risk Monday, then mainly moderate the
  rest of the week.

- Low rain chances Monday, then very low beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Deep moisture over the area along with the sea breeze will continue
to lead to a non-zero chance for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms at least for the next couple of days. Chances are
pretty small today, mainly 15-20%, but tomorrow we`ll see some low
to mid level (700-500 mb) vorticity to swing through and could
provide another uptick in activity (20-30%). NBM and other global
models continue to struggle with this convection, but some meso
models are picking it up, and with what we have been seeing, think
it`s reasonable to bump PoPs up a bit from guidance. Mid-level high
pressure shifts a bit more over the region from Tuesday through
much of the upcoming week and should drop moisture levels a bit
and limit activity to just some very small (unmentionable) chances
along the sea breeze.

We`ll continue the surface humidity combined with heat on Monday
with heat index values again approaching 110 in the afternoon, but
could be just a bit less than today, so we`ll see where we end up
today and base any potential heat advisory for tomorrow on this.
Another concern for tomorrow would be an increase in clouds
northeast and the shower potential there by mid to late afternoon
that could keep temps down a notch.  As with the precip chances,
from Tuesday through the end of the week the temps and humidity will
back off just a bit as the mid-level pattern changes. Heat advisory
concerns look to go away with HI remaining between 105 and 109.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Solid VFR conditions are noted in the TAFS throughout this period,
with mainly few to scattered clouds. While not mentionable in the
TAFs, there is a very low chance for a shower or storm this
afternoon near VCT site. Tomorrow afternoon chances could
increase a bit and could spread to ALI. Winds will remain mainly
light.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A mainly light to gentle (BF 2-3) southerly flow is expected to
continue through the week with a few periods of moderate flow.
There is a low to moderate (20-40%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms through mid-week of next week mainly across the
northern offshore waters followed by low chances through the end
of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  98  77  97 /  10  10  10  10
Victoria          76  97  75  97 /  10  30  20  30
Laredo            79 106  79 104 /  10  10  10   0
Alice             75 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  20
Rockport          80  93  80  92 /  10  10  10  20
Cotulla           79 104  79 102 /   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        75  99  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       81  91  81  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>244-246-
     247.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83