Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
518 FXUS64 KCRP 151053 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 553 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 549 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Moderate to Major Heat Risk through early this week - Scattered showers and thunderstorms east Sunday. - Rain Chances increasing again late this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Early in the period we remain sandwiched between two mid-level ridges with surface ridging over the Gulf. In the near term, this will mean enough moisture to keep low chance for showers and storms mainly in the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend Sunday and possibly into Monday. In addition to some daytime heating/sea breeze convection tomorrow, we will also keep an eye on a decaying MCS from north Texas that has a small chance to send a few showers/storms into the Victoria Crossroads in the evening. We begin drying out the mid-levels as we head into early next week. We`ll keep a low chance for showers storms along the immediate coast Monday, but then expect mainly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday we do see a pattern change and it`ll be something to keep our eyes on, especially if we stay in the weakness between the two mid-level ridges. A plume of tropical moisture will be working it`s way into the western Gulf and while the heaviest rain is likely to stay south of our area, it should bring an increase in showers and storms along the coast. Through early in the work-week we`ll keep seasonal temperatures with highs above 100 west and in the 90s east. Heat index values will approach 110 for brief periods each day, and while heat advisories look unlikely at this time, can`t rule out the need for one any day through Wednesday. with the increasing tropical moisture later in the week will knock temperatures back a bit and end any heat concerns. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Patchy fog has developed in the Victoria Crossroads and along the Coastal Plains; brief reduced visibility as low as 3SM in denser patches. Light showers are developing along the coastline, with greater spatial coverage in shower/thunderstorm activity expected in the Victoria Crossroads later in the morning. In a stronger thunderstorm, reduced visibility will lead to MVFR/IFR conditions, but this precipitation is expected to start diminishing by this evening. MVFR due to ceilings and patchy fog returns for KVCT/KALI/KCRP through Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 South-southeasterly moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) will persist into next week, with a few periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution, particuarly Tuesday and Wednesday. A low to medium (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily through the middle of next next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 0 Victoria 90 75 90 75 / 40 20 40 0 Laredo 101 78 101 77 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 0 Rockport 90 80 90 80 / 30 10 30 0 Cotulla 100 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 95 78 95 76 / 30 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 89 81 89 81 / 30 20 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...AE/82