896
FXUS61 KCTP 170706
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
206 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow bands lasting into
  Monday; snowy road conditions/hazardous travel possible in
  blowing/drifting snow
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday followed by a slightly milder
  trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The character of the snow showers is expected to transition
from cellular to more of the typical streamer band lake effect
appearance with the loss of daytime heating and increasing
boundary layer RH, resulting in a greater likelihood of
accumulating snowfall over northwest PA. A stripe of 5 to 8
inches of snow is expected somewhere in the area covered by the
Lake Effect Snow Warning (perhaps not county-wide averages, as
lake effect bands are typically more narrow), while areas
covered by the Winter Weather Advisory should see snowfall in
the 2 to 5 inch range.

High res guidance continues to show the potential for some of
these bands/squalls to reach pretty far inland overnight,
potentially even extending into the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
These bands may cause rapid changes in visibility and quick
accumulations on roadways, leading to hazardous travel
conditions.

The other concern today is strong winds. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph
will be likely through the rest of the afternoon along with a
few gusts as high as 55 mph as we continue to tap into 50 knot
winds at the top of the mixed layer. These winds could blow
around any unsecured objects and may result in scattered power
outages. Wind stay strong overnight, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph
likely. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire CWA
through midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Snow showers gradually decrease in coverage through the day on
Monday as inversion heights begin to fall, though it likely
takes most of the day for snow to come to an end across the
northern tier. High temperatures will range from the low 30s to
the mid 40s. Winds will remain gusty, though likely not as
strong as on Sunday, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Snow showers and gusty winds taper off Monday night as high
pressure briefly builds into the region. Models show the next
system for early next week ejecting out of the central Plains
(NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact southern stream
shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward through the Ohio
Valley toward the DelmarVA. Consensus brings about 0.25 inch of
QPF across the southern tier, and just a few hundredths north of
Interstate 80. There could be some snow on the leading edge
especially Tuesday morning, but generally limited to a coating.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip odds
trend higher into the end of next week. Most guidance shows this
system tracking to our west, which would result in an all rain
scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue to affect BFD and perhaps
UNV through this morning, and perhaps even through the early
afternoon hours as a well-aligned flow from 300-310 deg persists
in the lowest 7 kft of the atmosphere.

Periods of IFR or LIFR visibilities (and mainly MVFR ceilings)
will prevail at BFD during this period. The snow band could also bring restrictions to UNV, with MVFR
as the most likely category.

All other TAF sites stay mainly VFR through the 06Z 24 hour TAF
period.

If the snow band can maintain its structure far enough southeast,
it could bring some rain or snow to KMDT, though any
restrictions should be very brief (if at all).

Gusty winds will slacken somewhat this morning, generally
blowing out of the northwest at 15 to 25kts. A bump up in
winds with gusts peaking in the 30s (MPH) as vertical mixing
rebounds to between 3-4 kft AGL and the axis of a 125 kt upper
level jet shifts slowly north across the Commonwealth.

Winds will finally weaken late tonight through Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tues...Restrictions likely in rain and snow.

Wed-Thu...Isolated showers, restrictions likely from southeast
flow/low clouds.

Fri...Widespread rain expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ004-005-010.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ006-011-017.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Colbert/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Bauco
LONG TERM...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff