269
FXUS61 KCTP 051754
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
154 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Still a few showers/storms in the Laurels today, but dry and
becoming less humid elsewhere.

2) A fall preview on Sunday & Labor Day precedes another brief
uptick in heat and humidity next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Still a few showers/storms in the Laurels today,
but dry and becoming less humid elsewhere.

A quasi-stationary front is draped across Central PA this
morning, supporting a broken deck of stratocumulus clouds and a
few isolated showers. This front will continue to sag southwest
today thanks to a push of northeasterly winds at the surface.
To the southwest of this boundary in the Laurel Highlands, there
will still be a few rounds of showers and storms there today.
A complex of thunderstorms is moving southeast through Central
Ohio early this morning and is progged to bring showers/storms
to southwest PA this morning into the early afternoon.

An upper low will gradually impinge on northeast PA today, and
those relatively cooler temperatures aloft will support widespread
stratocumulus clouds. Highs this afternoon will still be a few
degrees warmer than average for this time of year, but dewpoints
will decrease this afternoon and evening. Considerable relief
arrives tonight as dewpoints and low temperatures drop into the
50s areawide (and touch the upper 40s in the northwest
mountains). There could be some fog tonight as well, especially
across the northeast part of the area.

   -------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: A fall preview on Sunday & Labor Day precedes another
brief uptick in heat and humidity next week.

High pressure will build into the region tomorrow and Monday,
ushering in much-needed relief from an incredibly active start
to the month of September. Other than some morning valley fog,
the weather will be really nice for the Sunday and Labor Day
Monday. Highs mainly in the 70s and lows 45-55F both Sunday
night and Monday night will be ideal for outdoor activities.
Sunday could end up being mostly cloudy as the base of an upper
low rotates through the region and a few isolated showers are
possible. High pressure builds in on Monday, ensuring abundant
sunshine for Labor Day. There is a strong signal for widespread
valley fog on Monday morning with high pressure overhead
providing ideal conditions for optimal radiational cooling.

Surface high pressure moves east of us by Tuesday, which means
southwest winds will lead to an uptick in heat and humidity once
again. Upper level ridging will nudge into the northeast by the
middle of next week bringing continued dry weather. Heat index
values back in the 80s to low 90s will peak on Wednesday.
Fortunately, the "heat" looks short lived and we`ll see
temperatures cooling off again for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominately VFR conditions will prevail across the area this
afternoon, with peak heating allowing for localized MVFR
ceilings to mix out. Distant cut-off low over Atlantic Canada
will trend winds N/NE`erly through the 18Z TAF period, bringing
a drier continental air mass into the region. A few rain
showers have developed in SW PA (e.g. Somerset, Bedford) this
afternoon, where precipitable water values remain elevated as
drier air continues to gradually filter into the region (PWs up
to 1.5"), though weak forcing & displacement of showers from
richer moisture over VA will tend to limit shower coverage,
particularly at terminals. For these reasons, no mentions of
SHRA were added to TAFs, with a ~20% chance of a steadier
shower to move overhead at KJST/KAOO, where brief visibility
restrictions primarily to MVFR would be possible.

Diurnally driven showers across the Commonwealth will diminish
this evening, where clearing skies may contribute to overnight
fog/low stratus development. Higher confidence in restrictions
is for the northern terminals (KBFD/KIPT/KUNV) where lighter
winds will be in place given weaker pressure gradient, with
lower confidence elsewhere as winds may remain elevated enough
to mix out fog/stratus. Gradual improvements to VFR are favored
where these overnight restrictions develop, with VFR favored
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR favored; morning fog possible.

Wed...PM SHRA/TSRA possible in the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA may bring chances for -SHRA/-TSRA across the
Commonwealth.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Teare