916
FXUS61 KCTP 021046
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
646 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Trimmed afternoon dewpoints/RH Tuesday-Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry spell through late week precedes return of summer warmth
and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry spell through late week precedes return of
summer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of
June

The recent stretch of dry weather continues through late week
as Canadian high pressure migrates southeastward from the Upper
Great Lakes off the Carolina coast by the weekend. Model data
continues to hint at a stray sprinkle or perhaps brief rain
shower across the southern half of CPA through the afternoon,
but odds for measurable rainfall are generally less than 10%.

A shift in the pattern will bring rising temperatures and
humidity levels for late week with summer conditions returning
into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb above early June
climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread
80-90F readings fcst Friday and Saturday (most likely warmest
days).

An approaching cold front from the Lower Great Lakes will bring
an increasing chance for scattered showers/t-storms Saturday
into Sunday (max POPs on Sunday). The front is fcst to become
quasi stationary to the south of the MD line early next week.
The proximity of the front along with low level flow shifting
to the east/southeast will likely result in unsettled conditions
and lower temperatures (near to slightly below normal) into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region will keep PA
in a regime of northerly flow of dry air for at least the next
36 hours. The dry air will keep any convectively induced clouds
that form during today within VFR criteria with bases mostly in
the 5kft-8kft range. A high cirrus deck (~25kft) will traverse
the region this afternoon into the night as well.

The drier airmass coupled with daytime diurnal heating will
allow for steep low level lapse rates to develop, highest in the
Lower Susquehanna Valley. This will lead to wind gusts peaking
mostly in the 15kt-20kt range from late morning into the
evening Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wed-Fri...VFR with no significant weather. Any showers that
develop Tue or Wed will be light and spotty. Any fog very
limited. Winds begin to take on a greater westerly component
Thursday into Friday.


Sat...VFR favored with restrictions possible in -SHRA, mainly
late.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambrech