619
FXUS61 KCTP 030741
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
241 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor adjustments to hourly temperatures today into tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation brings slippery
road conditions and travel/school delays early today

2) Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through
the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week
with above-normal rainfall likely

3) Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late
week into the second week of March

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation
brings slippery road conditions and travel/school delays early
today

A low-level warm advection regime will sustain light wintry
precip as it continues to spread from southwest to northeast
across CPA this morning. Some sleet and/or light snow may fall
at the onset or on the front-end of precipitation as -2 to -6C
max wet bulb temps retreat to the northeast. Light/minor ice
accumulation from freezing rain of generally 0.10 of an inch or
less is likely across the bulk of Central PA with slightly
higher amounts possible - particularly on the southwest
Allegheny ridges. Temperatures warm above the freezing mark from
southwest to northeast through the afternoon into tonight
effectively transitioning ptypes to plain rain. Fog and low
stratus may be expansive overnight with lingering areas of
light rain and pockets of drizzle.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of much-needed rain expected from
Wednesday through the first weekend of March; wet pattern
favored into next week with above-normal rainfall likely

On the heels of one of the driest winter seasons on record (see
climate section), periods of much needed rainfall are expected
from Wednesday through the first weekend of March. The wet
pattern is favored to last into the second week of March based
on the latest CPC 6-10/8-14 day precip outlooks. Surges of
Pacific and Gulf moisture interacting with wavy or slow moving
frontal zones is projected to deliver total rainfall amounts
between 1 and 3 inches across CPA through next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up
from late week into the second week of March

Persistent and amplified Southeast U.S./Atlantic centered upper
ridging will promote a significant springtime warming trend
from late week into the second week of March. Fcst max and min
temperatures will be 15-30 degrees above the historical average
Fri-Tue and may challenge daily records.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds continue to expand northward and will thicken through
the night and into the morning, with all TAF sites likely
seeing IFR ceilings by 15Z. Steady precipitation will enter
from the southwest and will expand to the north and east through
the early morning hours. Most of this will fall as freezing
rain, though some snow or sleet may initially mix in, mainly to
the east of UNV.

High confidence in a prolonged period of IFR or lower conditions
for all Central PA TAF sites through Wednesday morning, though
JST could see a few hours where ceilings briefly rise to MVFR
during the early afternoon.

A 40 to 45 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves into the
region this morning and remains overhead into tonight. While
the strongest winds are expected to remain above 2000 feet for
much of the day, LLWS concerns will develop at at JST, AOO, and
UNV for the afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat...Restrictions at times in periods of rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
It was a very dry meteorological winter (Dec-Jan-Feb).
Some of our long-term climate stations cracked the top-ten of
their driest winter seasons (Dec 1st-Feb 28/29th).

Station        Total Precip    Rank    Period of
                 (inches)    (Driest)  Record (since)
------------ ------------ -------- --------------
Altoona            4.15         5th      1948
Bradford           4.25         2nd      1957
Harrisburg         6.05        17th      1888
Johnstown          4.93         3rd      1892
Williamsport       5.24        15th      1895
State College      4.52         8th      1893

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
this afternoon for PAZ004-005-010>012-045-046-049>053-058.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EST
this afternoon for PAZ006-037-041-042.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ024-033>036-064.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Dangelo/Steinbugl