040
FXUS61 KCTP 291550
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1150 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* minor modification to afternoon high temps for Saturday.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and breezy (Windy Sat morning across the NE portion of
the CWA with gusts of around 40 mph) into the last weekend of
May

2) Pleasant, rain-free conditions to start June

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
Cool and breezy (Windy Sat morning across the NE portion of
the CWA with gusts of around 40 mph) into the last weekend of
May

Several Deg C of warming from the west around the 850 mb level
will help to minimize any flat cu development, in contrast to
the several deg C of cooling at that same level and thick
stratocu coverage we had during the morning and midday hours
Thursday.

Today will be mostly sunny with low humidity and near-normal
temperatures in the 70s. A westerly breeze will gust 20-30 mph
at times during the afternoon.

A cold front drops southward from eastern Canada this evening
and moves through the region tonight, delivering a shot of
cooler air to start the last weekend of May.

Highs on Saturday will be -6 to -10F below climo in most places
with highs in the 60s...to low 70s in some of the Scent Valleys.

Wind gusts from the North-Northwest in the 30-40 mph range are
fcst over the eastern portion of the area early Saturday in
conjunction with deep sfc low along the New England coast.

Saturday night will feature decreasing clouds and wind which
sets up a pretty chilly overnight period by end of May
standards. We would not rule out some patchy frost in the
northern tier with the usual cold spots likely printing lows in
the upper 30s early Sunday morning.

-------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2:
Pleasant, rain-free conditions to start June

A steady dose of Canadian air intrusions will promote an extended
stretch of rain-free (dry) weather over the next 7 days. WPC
QPF is essentially 0.00" across all of CPA through 12Z Friday
June 5th. The pleasant and refreshing weather next week is fcst
to be replaced by warmer, more summerlike conditions by the
first weekend of June.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR expected across all sites today. Skies generally SKC with
isolated FEW or SCT high based cu/thin cirrus developing through
this afternoon with winds averaging around 10-15kts, with gusts
in the high teens/low twenties.

A secondary push of cooler air from the north approaches the
region tonight. The frontal boundary associated with this cooler
air has little to no meaningful moisture and no restriction to
CIG or VSBY is expected. Overall, a nice stretch of good VFR
conditions is expected through the weekend.

Winds will take on a more North to NNW component as the frontal
boundary passes towards the end of the current TAF period with
breezy conditions likely. Gustiest conditions will be present at
the the eastern sites with gusts of >25kts possible. Signal is
present for some LLWS in E PA after the cold frontal passage,
but confidence isn`t high enough in widespread development to
mention it in this set of TAFs, will monitor for future TAF
packages.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...VFR with no significant weather expected.

Tue...Watching for isolated shower activity, restrictions
possible

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Lambrech/Tyburski