093
FXUS61 KCTP 141036
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
636 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Minor edits to lower dewpoints and bump up wind today
*Lower minimum temps tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Noticeably cooler/pleasant and rain-free start to the week
2) Warm/humid conditions return mid to late week with best odds
for rain Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeably cooler/pleasant and rain-free start to
the week

Refreshing airmass inbound behind cold front this morning with
dewpoints in the 50s across northwest PA. Upslope stratus will
dissipate over the Laurel Highlands early this morning with a
general decreasing cloud trend and plenty of sunshine expected
through the afternoon. Max temps will be 10 to 15 degrees
lower/cooler vs. Sunday ranging from the mid 60s in the northern
tier mtns to the mid 70s in the southern valleys along the MD
line.

Strong radiational cooling pattern tonight into early Tuesday
morning with very low pwats beneath area of high pressure
migrating over CPA. Min temps with 3-handles are definitely in
play in the usual northern tier cold spots with 40-50F lows
anticipated elsewhere (4-8F below climo). This setup favors
valley fog formation with localized visibility restrictions
below 1 mile.

Wide 25-35 degree diurnal range fcst Tuesday with one more
pleasant and comfortable afternoon with max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm/humid conditions return mid to late week
with best odds for rain Thursday

Return SSW flow on the back side of the high pressure system
will pump the dewpoints and moisture/humidity back up from mid
to late week. Best rain/QPF signal at this time is on Thursday
9/17 as a weak front sinks southward from the eastern Great
Lakes. If the front can push south of the MD line, most of
Friday could be dry. Precip odds then steadily increase over the
weekend ahead of next frontal system progression from the Great
Lakes. Large scale upper level ridging should support a mid to
late week warming trend with the largest hi/lo departure from
climo Wed-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Nice day shaping up as the sun is coming up. Low clouds at JST
have been breaking up.

More information below.

Some lower clouds and isolated pockets of fog will be over
the higher elevations sites like JST and perhaps BFD early
this morning.

Lower conditions will give way to VFR conditions by late
morning, as a strong cold front moves south and east of the
area. Winds will pick up and become gusty about 14Z.

By around 23Z early this evening, winds will drop off with
clear skies overnight. Dewpoints fcst to drop into the 40s
across much of the area, so fog will be limited.

A dry day expected on Tuesday, as high pressure builds into
the area.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...AM fog possible, otherwise mainly VFR.

Thu-Fri...Increasing SHRA/TSRA chances, mainly on Thu.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin