432
FXUS61 KCTP 031909
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
209 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Seasonably mild and breezy/windy week ahead for central PA.
* Recurrent opportunities for rain showers into the weekend.
* Trending colder for next week with below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave trough stationed across the eastern half of the
forecast area as of 18z/1pm EST can be observed with ample lift
allowing for expansive cloud coverage. This feature will
continue to track east across the area; however, moisture
remains very limited outside of the northern tier of
Pennsylvania. A fairly cohesive line of precipitation entering
western Pennsylvania looks to have mostly fallen apart giving
way for scattered showers across the northern tier. Current
forecast continues to outline best chances for showers across
the northern tier with showers across the southeast looking
less likely as the evening progresses with the aforementioned
dry air in place further south/east.

Recent observations continue to outline increasing winds/gusts
this afternoon and we`re expecting to continue seeing multiple
hours of 25-35mph wind gusts due to a relatively tight pressure
gradient as the coastal low off of Nova Scotia continues to bomb
out in the near-term. Some gusts upwards of 35 mph will be
possible across higher elevations; however, best signals for
wind gusts above 40 mph appear to be north of the NY-PA border
based on a consensus of RAP/HREF/NAM model data. Recent
observations out of KBUF/KELZ outline gusts over > 30kts which
is tracking relatively well with model guidance, thus it appears
that no increase in the wind gust forecast is needed at this
time. A slight decrease in winds are expected overnight;
however, breezy winds are expected to persist area wide
throughout the near-term forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure passing to the south will result in a
dry, mostly sunny, and not as breezy day on Tuesday with max
temps still a few degrees above the historical average in the
50-60F range.

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the morning and
early afternoon hours on Wednesday, with relatively dry air at
850mb and 925mb to start off the day. Thermal belt influence
south of the region could begin to insert itself into portions
of south-central Pennsylvania and surrounding the Laurel
Highlands, thus while relative humidity values are in upper 30%
to lower 40% range, there will be some potential to undercut NBM
dewpoints/relative humidity on Wednesday. The main concern will
be incoming moisture from an approaching shortwave that could
curb the extent dry air mixing down to the surface. Winds will
remain fairly breezy during this timeframe with wind gusts
generally in near 20 mph with locally higher wind gusts across
Cambria and Somerset counties.

The next shortwave and accompanying sfc low/trailing cold front
will sweep through late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night. This system will bring lake enhanced and upslope showers
(primarily focused downwind of Lake Erie and over the higher
elevations) and another breezy to blustery/windy period into
Thursday. Current fcst max gusts are below advisory criteria in
the 30-40 mph range, but would not rule out a wind advisory yet
as fcst soundings and shorter duration pressure rises indicate
the potential for higher/stronger wind gusts > 40 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Brisk/windy start Thursday should improve by the evening as
high pressure restarts the dry/showery/breezy cadence. The
repeat pattern evolves yet again by Friday with the high
migrating off the coast, allowing a fast and broad southwest
flow/WAA to expand eastward from the Ohio Valley. Some timing
differences start to show up with the frontal precip on Friday,
but on balance it looks like another showery and breezy period
to end the week.

Model and ensemble data show this weeks zonal/progressive flow
pattern becoming more amplified over the weekend and into early
next week. The large scale evolution would consist of a deep
upper trough carving out over the Eastern U.S. delivering much
colder/below normal temperatures by Veteran`s Day. It looks like
there may be one last surface wave and associated frontal
system moving through and driving showery precip on Sunday
followed by a persistent chilly cyclonic/northwesterly flow.
Recent model guidance continues to indicate increasing chances
for accumulating snow as we progress into the Sunday-Monday
timeframe across portions of central Pennsylvania, mainly
across the northern and western halves of the forecast area.
Lake- enhanced snow will bring higher chances for the
aforementioned accumulating snow across NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Brief restrictions to MVFR will remain possible at BFD over the
next two to three hours due to lower ceilings. HREF model
guidance continues to not be the most impressed with the extent
of low-level cloud cover, thus have trended towards GLAMP model
guidance in the near-term. Radar echoes across NW PA continue to
be sparse and there is low confidence on impacts at BFD between
18-22Z, with no rain expected at the rest of the airfields
through 18Z Tuesday.

Winds have already began to increase across western Pennsylvania
with all airfields pushing upwards of 15-25kts, tracking well
with the previous forecast, thus have only made minor changes to
near-term winds with more substantial edits after 06Z to track
with more recent HREF/RAP model guidance. There remains some
uncertainty with regards to some lower winds during the early
morning hours especially across south-central Pennsylvania, thus
have trended closer to GLAMP model guidance in this timeframe
before all model guidance points towards winds gusts reaching
above 20kts again on Tuesday. LLWS mentions previously across
the Susquehanna Valley have been nixed in the 18Z TAF package,
with higher confidence across the western (BFD/JST/AOO/UNV)
terminals meeting LLWS criteria.

Outlook...

Wed...Increasing clouds with a chance of showers. Restrictions
possible in the N/W, otherwise VFR.

Thu...Showers/restrictions possible early, improving late.

Fri...Increasing clouds with more in the way of widespread
showers. Restrictions possible. Becoming windy.

Sat...

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/NPB
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/NPB
AVIATION...NPB