608
FXUS61 KCTP 050231
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1031 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Tweaks to near term temps/PoPs

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Just a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
for tonight.

2) Drier, less humid weather returns to most of the area
Saturday and lasts through Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Just a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected for tonight.

10 PM Update...
Haven`t changed much in the details. Not much to the cells that
are out there right now. WPC has mentioned brief heavy rain and
possibility of some repeat shots of rain in the rough axis where
those cells are now (UNV to PHL). But, radar estimates are low.
Cloud tops are not very cold, so they are short cells, but the
warm clouds can be the ones that make heavy rain out of smaller
droplets. So, we`ll not discount the possibility that they could
yet produce some heavy downpours. However, flooding does not
appear to be likely at this point. Have nudged temps up a deg or
two due to the decent amt of cloud cover out there.

Expectations are that some additional SHRA/TSRA will develop
over OH as forcing comes down from lower MI. These will clip or
get very close to the Laurels overnight. Again, some heavy
downpours possible, but the threat is not high enough to warrant
a watch at this point.

Previous...
Large scale uplift is lacking - or even turned negative over the
region late this aftn. There are some taller cu in two separate
lines running NW-SE. We`ve left PoPs, but not more than 40s, in
those areas through 05Z/midnight. But, confidence is low that
much deep convection will develop. With the decided lack of rain
on the regional radar mosaic and only small chances that any
development will occur upstream of the flood watch area, we`ve
dropped the flood watch.

   -------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier, less humid weather returns to most of the
area Saturday and lasts through Labor Day Weekend.

A cold front draped across the PA/NY border will begin its
southward surge tonight, helped by a deepening upper low over
New England. This push of northeasterly winds at the surface
will usher in cooler and much less humid air for Saturday and
the remainder of Labor Day weekend. There could still be a few
lingering showers in the southwest part of our area into
Saturday morning, but coverage and intensity of storms will
trend considerably lower. With cool temperatures aloft, we can`t
rule out the chance for an isolated shower or two on Saturday
around the area along with widespread stratocumulus clouds.
Saturday will still be a few degrees warmer than average for
this time of year, but the real relief arrives by Saturday
night. Dewpoints and low temperatures will fall into the upper
40s and 50s areawide by Sunday morning.

Other than some morning valley fog, the weather will be really
nice for the Sunday and Labor Day Monday. Highs mainly in the
70s and lows 45-55F both Sunday night and Monday night will be
ideal for outdoor activities. Little if any rain is expected
along with abundant sunshine. At this point, it looks like dry
weather sticks around through at least midweek. After that, the
ridge may build once again along with the associated chance for
a return to the ring of fire.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main feature on radar at 01Z Saturday was a NW-SE oriented
training band of rain showers stretching from 15 mi N of KFIG
to KZER. No lightning yet but a few flashes can not be ruled
out. There is about a 20 percent chance that these showers will
impact MDT and LNS before 05Z. Breaks in the cloud cover and
moist ground later tonight will bring lowering VSBYS/CIGS and
areas of fog and low stratus. Any fog will quickly mix out
within 90 minutes after sunrise Saturday with a light northerly
breeze. There is still a 20-30% chc of SHRA/TSRA over JST and
AOO on Sat. Cool air aloft and a pair of weak short wave troughs
could be just enough to mar an otherwise excellent day for
flying.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...VFR favored; morning fog possible.

Wed...PM SHRA/TSRA possible in the northern tier.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
There is a phone line issue to the KJST ASOS platform. No obs
going out long-line at this time. RTS unknown.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert
EQUIPMENT...Dangelo