860
FXUS61 KCTP 070155
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
955 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE THE
  NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL PA AND EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH 2 AM
  TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) LOCALIZED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALIZED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
AND INTERACTING WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INITIATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
WITH REPEAT/TRAINING POTENTIAL.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS SHIFTED FROM THE
EASTERN INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
(BASED ON THE HREF AND REFS MODEL OUTPUT) WHERE FFGS ARE LOWER
AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES ARE MORE IN-PLAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ALSO FIRING ALONG ZONES OF CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN TIER, SO
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE THAT AREA. WITH CAMS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE END TIME OF THE WATCH TO 06Z TUE.

THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS ROBUST AS
IN PRIOR DAYS (54 SVR+TOR WARNINGS IN THE PAST 3 DAYS). THIS IS
REFLECTED IN MOST OF THE AREA IN A GENERAL OR NON-SEVERE TSTM
OUTLOOK AND ONLY LEVEL 1/5 MRGL RISK COVERING THE SOUTHWEST
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER CAPE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.

THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK CAN BE SUMMARIZED MORE OR
LESS BY TYPICAL EARLY JULY UNSETTLED/HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid evening update.

Adjusted fcst for AOO, UNV, and JST. Showers and storms are
moving and weakening, but at a slower rate. Thus added
thunder to these 3 sites for the next few hours.

More information below.

Band of showers and storms to the west, should weaken as
they move east.

Main issue later tonight into Tuesday morning will be low
clouds and fog.

Some improvement later Tuesday.

Drier and better conditions Wednesday into Thursday.

Outlook...

Wed...Improving conditions. Still a chance of showers
and storms near JST.

Thu...Mainly dry early. Chance of showers and storms late.

Fri...Showers and storms possible again late.

Sat...Chance of showers and storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin