520
FXUS61 KCTP 141414
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1014 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Remaining generally cloudy and humid with below normal daytime
  temperatures today through Monday. Periods of showers and
  locally heavy downpours for today and tonight.
* A strong warmup for Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs
  several degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Interesting setup across Central PA (near and just south of the
I-80 corridor (for about the the next 18 hours) in the form of
a quasi stnry frontal boundary a few to several KFT AGL. The
band of moderate to heavy rain that formed in an area of weak
convergence in this area has started showing signs of weakening
this morning. Instantaneous precip rates were as high as 4
inches per hour around 8 am, but these have decreased to less
than 2 inches per hour as of 10 am. This band has been producing
1-2 inches of rainfall, but it has had enough of a
northeastward component to its motion to prevent any flooding
concerns. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this region
through 4 pm though as heavier rainfall could develop once
again.

Another area of moderate to heavy rain associated with the best
upper level forcing is entering northwest PA. Upstream
observations indicate the potential for this to produce and inch
or two of rainfall over Warren and McKean counties.

As the best forcing associated with the upper trough moves away
from the region this afternoon, the focus for heavy rainfall
will shift to southwest PA. Recent hires guidance suggests that
anywhere from 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE could develop this
afternoon as higher dew point air works its way in from the
southwest and a few breaks in the clouds develop. This should
allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop in an environment
characterized by PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 range, warm cloud depths
of over 12000 feet, and weak shear. Any thunderstorms that form
in this environment will have very heavy rainfall rates and may
produce a quick 1-2 inches of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The elevated frontal boundary will pivot to more of a
NW - SE orientation for tonight and Sunday, and become more
diffuse, which should lead to lower precip rates from less
widespread showers.

Rainfall amounts in the 00-12Z Sunday period should be under
0.25 inch for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall tone/message of the long term has not changed with this
late evening update = high PoPs (relatively for the long range).
While confidence in timing of the stronger waves is low,
confidence is high that we`ll get wet many of these days.

Prev...
Unsettled weather pattern continues into next week with ample
opportunities for rain. A series of shortwave impulses rippling
west to east into a high PW corridor within a quasi zonal or
"troughy" 500mb configuration from Midwest into the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast will continue to bring periods of rain
showers and locally heavy downpours. WPC ERO for Sunday (D4)
includes all of CPA while shifting the southern tier on Monday
(D5).

Sunday/Monday look like the coolest days with CAD signature
established to the north of sfc wave tracking through the
Delmarva. Temps rebound by midweek as flow shifts back to the
west/southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread restrictions will continue throughout the TAF period
with periods of moderate to heavy rain (the heaviest rain will
be concentrated near and just to the south of Interstate 80
through early this afternoon), light winds, and low ceilings.
IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail at all airfields today, with only
a low chance of improvement to MVFR at JST, MDT, and LNS for a
few hours late this afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but not enough confidence
at any airfield to include mention in the TAFs.

Rain should taper off this evening, with only a stray shower or
two expected overnight. However, cooler air from the Northeast,
filtering into the high dewpoints air and over the wet ground,
will lead to low CIGS and areas of fog tonight and early Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon and early
evening hours.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ010>012-
017>019-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff