994
FXUS61 KCTP 240558
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
158 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe threat for today is winding down, but a gusty
  thunderstorm can not be ruled out in NW PA tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Upper low over the Great Lakes will move southeast tonight
then pull off to the northeast Monday. Showers and thunderstorms
will move through the northern tier periodically through early
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper low over the Great Lakes will move
southeast tonight then pull off to the northeast Monday. Showers
and thunderstorms will move through the northern tier
periodically through early Tuesday.

A 70 kt jet max at 500 mb rounding the base of the upper trough
over the Great Lakes will provide deep synoptic lift for an area
of rain with embedded thunderstorms pivoting across NW PA
tonight. Storms have been severe warned in Ohio as they have
come off Lake Erie, but they are expected to weaken
significantly as they move southeastward towards central PA.
There is some degree of west-east training with these storms, so
northwestern Warren Co may end up seeing as much as 0.75-1.00
of rain, mostly falling before 2 AM. Less rainfall is expected
to the south and east, with little to none south of I-80 and
east of the Laurels.

We expect less coverage of SHRA/TSRA Monday without good PVA
moving across. However, the cold pool aloft and heating should
make isolated to scattered convection along at least the
northern tier. It is unlikely that any precip will get south of
I-80, but there will be plenty of clouds. Some showers will
linger into the night and possibly early Tuesday before drier
air works in as the upper trough departs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough swinging across the area along with a west
to southwest flow over the Great Lakes will continue to bring
clouds and periods of rain mainly across the Laurels and
northwestern PA. Weather pattern more typical of late September
than late August.

With another shortwave impulse, bands of showers are weakening
but still trekking eastward and may briefly lead to
restrictions at JST, AOO, and IPT from 06Z to 08Z. Post rain
restrictions are look most likely at BFD and JST in the form of
low ceilings building in. IFR ceilings are possible in the early
morning hours with confidence highest at BFD (50-70%). VFR
elsewhere.

After daybreak, isolated showers and possibly a thundershower
remain in the forecast across the northern tier. Cumulus and
stratocu will build through the day, but bases will generally
rise to VFR levels in the afternoon. MVFR cigs are expected to
linger longest at BFD.

Outlook...

Tue...MVFR cigs possible in the AM across the NW, then trending
VFR. Showers/thunderstorms possible in northern tier.

Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions.

Thu-Fri...Chance of showers and storms again, mainly Thursday PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambrech/Colbert