358
FXUS61 KCTP 141540
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1140 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid for many days
* Afternoon and evening focused showers and thunderstorms are
  expected through the evening hours. Flooding possible almost
  anywhere.
* Tuesday still looks like the driest day of the next seven with
  a brief visit from high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
Earlier flooding rains over the eastern counties is still at
risk for continued and perhaps renewed/worsened flooding. See
hydro section for more.

Really good short wave trough rolling into wrn PA is already
helping to enhance lift over Central PA. A nearly-solid line of
new storms are firing along the Allegheny Front (Wopsy Mtn).
These are not moving at all. The rest of the area is clearing
out and heating/destabilization is occurring rapidly. Expect
widespread storms and all could have heavy rainfall. Expect the
passage of that short wave trough to (almost) end the SHRA/TSRA.
But, recent NAM run does still make some deep convection close
to midnight in the NE. Will be careful to not drop our guard too
soon there. Risk for SVR remains MRGL, but the continued
moistening of the column overhead will likely make it more
difficult for downdrafts to occur. Hail risk is nearly nil.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Short MBE vectors and relatively light flow (still only 20KT
deep shear over MDT) continue today, as the last many days, and
will keep the FF risk higher than normal. ERO bumped up into the
moderate category for our SErn third, with slight risk for good
portion of central mountains, then tapers to nil for the NW few
counties. The moisture and approach of a stronger longer- wave
trough will create widespread SHRA/TSRA in the aftn/evening,
mainly over the eastern half of the area. Posted another FF
Watch for Mon that runs through 04z for southeast portion of CWA,
as activity should persist there well into the evening. Though
potential for isolated downpours to cause localized water issues
for central mountains in the afternoon is also possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front pulls slowly moves through the area Monday
evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief period of no
precipitation across central Pennsylvania through the morning
hours on Tuesday. This will be short-lived, however, as the
front will move back in to the southern tier Tuesday afternoon
and trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Large-scale pattern remains fairly consistent, allowing for
continued chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
across central Pennsylvania throughout much of the long-term
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is a good
signal that storms will form again midday Monday. Will just
mention after 16Z. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV-AOO
depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are possible
to the NW of that area.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct PM TSRA poss, mainly south.

Thurs-Fri...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Watch has been expanded to cover most of the CWA. Have
only left out the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels. But, current
(1130AM) storms along the Allegheny Front could put some water
down into the basins which run toward the OH River (W into
Cambria/Somerset Cos) The real hot spots for renewed/continued
flooding are in Lycoming/Sullivan/Columbia Cos, and various
points where the heavy rain fell over the last two days (Adams,
York, Bedford, Huntingdon, Lancaster. Current cell movements in
the east are helping to keep the risk just below warning limits
at this point, but additional storms are likely or absolute in
many places this aftn and evening. Most of the rain will be off
to the SE of UNV-IPT-AOO by sunset. But, there is a chc for
isolated storms in the (wet) NErn counties. No river forecast
points are yet in a worry for flooding, but the tribs to the
West Br and Mainstem Susq will be the most likely place to see
one or two river points go into caution or flood. The risk for
flooding goes away from all of our area after midnight (unless
any downstream points are still rising) with the rain ending in
the SE around/before then.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ012-018-019-025>028-
034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/RXR
LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB
AVIATION...Dangelo/RXR
HYDROLOGY...Dangelo/RXR