391
FXUS61 KCTP 051834
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
134 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No sig changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-long dry
spell now over.

2) Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced rain showers
beneath upper level low

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-
long dry spell now over.

Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft
will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week.
High temps this afternoon will make it into the mid 70s across
much of central PA, still 15 to 20 degrees above average. Highs
will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday.

The cold front responsible for the rain this morning will slow
down or stall near the I95 corridor tonight. A dry slot will
keep most locations dry this afternoon into Friday, but a weak
wave along the front may trigger another round of showers this
evening in the Lower Susq Valley later this afternoon into the
evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced
rain showers beneath upper level low

Seasonably cooler/breezy pattern to start the first full
weekend of November. The passage of closed H5 low followed by
mean cyclonic flow favors persistent clouds and periods of lake
enhanced rain over the western and central Alleghenies on
Saturday. We were keen to manually adjust max temps a few
degrees lower on 11/7 to account for the cooler pattern shift
which looks to continue into early next week. If the current
forecast holds, it will be the first below average daytime high
in three weeks!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly scattered clouds across the airspace this afternoon with
a few spots holding on to MVFR broken cloud decks around
2,000ft. Improvements to flight conditions are expected to
improve over the next few hours, with all sites experiencing VFR
and weakening winds by 00Z Friday. Clouds will gradually build
back in overnight, with a some signal for MVFR ceilings again
over the western Allegheny sites. Additionally some low clouds
could re-develop overnight across MDT and LNS for a few hours. A
secondary front is expected to pass over the region overnight,
but confidence in coverage and intensity of precipitation is
low. While rain showers are possible on Friday, the highest
confidence in precip will be for after the 00Z Saturday
time frame.

Outlook...

Fri...Showers and sub-VFR ceilings most likely over the western
airfields impacting KBFD and KJST.

Sat-Mon...Breezy with showers and sub-VFR ceilings possible
over the NW 1/2 of the airspace. Max gusts 20-25kt.

Tue...Mainly VFR, clear skies, and gusty winds between
20-25kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
1. Today will mark the end of the following Consecutive Days
streaks without measurable rain:

10/17 through 11/4 (19 days): Harrisburg, Williamsport,
Altoona, State College

10/18 through 11/4 (18 days): Johnstown

10/18 through 11/2 (16 days): Bradford


2. Daily record highs for 11/4 and 11/5:

Harrisburg           78/1994 | 79/1975
Williamsport         75/2003 | 77/1994
Altoona              77/2003 | 77/2015
Bradford     *TIED = 74/2015 | 76/2024
State College        78/2003 | 75/2015


3. The sun will set at 5PM on Saturday 11/7 in State College.
This will mark the beginning of a 2 month period during which
sunsets will occur before 5PM surrounding the Winter Solstice.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff