877
FXUS61 KCTP 110438
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1238 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* A bit more cloud cover for Saturday. Looking wetter for
late Saturday and early Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and perhaps a brief thunderstorm tapering off from
northwest to southeast early today.

2) A nice afternoon today, but increasing chance for widespread
moderate to perhaps heavy rain late Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and perhaps a brief thunderstorm tapering
off from northwest to southeast early today.

A cold front nearly bisecting PA from NE to SW will push slowly
south through the rest of the state this afternoon and evening
before stalling out just south of the Mason/Dixon line today.
Main factor favoring showers early on is the dewpoints across
the far southeast are still quite high.

Much of the rain so far is not reaching the ground. Widespread
mid level cloud deck over the area. There is a heavier shower
(small thing) over Somerset Co.

KEY MEASSAGE 2: A nice afternoon today, but increasing chance
for widespread moderate to perhaps heavy rain late Saturday into
early Sunday.

Still a bit early to tell how much the models may suffer a
bit of convective feedback, but the current pattern supports
what we have been having for much of the summer.

More information below.

As SFC high pressure moves well off the Mid Atlantic and
Southern New England Coast, low level moisture lurking just
south of the Mason/Dixon line Fri night will push steadily NE
across the state on Saturday within broad llvl flow from the
south to southwest. A notable axis of streamline convergence
shifting gradually east across Central PA late Sat afternoon/Sat
night will provide increasing llvl theta-E advection and
numerous showers with a few to several tenths of an inch of
rainfall likely across at least the SE half to two thirds of
the CWA by early Sunday. A few PM TSRA possible Saturday and/or
Sunday afternoons, especially over the western mtns. A more-
active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon-Tues. But, the flat
upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS will make it
difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA ahead of any
shots of atmos forcing. The week could end dry as the upper
ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers are developing in response to a shortwave
moving across south-central PA this evening. These showers are
most likely to impact JST and AOO, though they could reach MDT
and LNS as well. We have held off on including any mentions of
rain at those two sites for now, but it may have to be added
later as we watch the showers progress eastward. Brief vsby
drops to MVFR or IFR will be possible in any showers.

Mid level clouds may limit fog development somewhat tonight
compared to the past few nights, but there is still some signal
for fog development across the northern half of the region as
clouds begin to thin after 06Z. The most likely places to see
IFR restrictions develop will be BFD, IPT, and UNV. Some
guidance shows LIFR ceilings developing at JST for a period
tonight, but confidence on this occurring is low.

VFR conditions will return area-wide once any fog burns off
after sunrise. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with light
winds out of the west-northwest.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for
afternoon SHRA/TSRA on at least a hit and miss basis.

Tue...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible over NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
AVIATION...Bauco