332
FXUS61 KCTP 290852
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Chilly fall-like pattern with low humidity continues today
  through Sunday.
* Meteorological Fall (September 1) kicks off with continued
  pleasant and dry conditions and a gradual warmup for Monday
  through Wednesday.
* Cooler than normal temperatures will return following a cold
  frontal passage and showers on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Variable amounts of high based stratocu and altocu clouds were
spread across the Central Ridge and Valley region and Susq
Valley this morning within an area of weak llvl warm
advection. The shallow cool, moist air and elevated inversion
base was leading to IFR and LIFR across the NW Mtns of PA
(KBFD) and these conditions will remain fairly steady-state
through the mid morning hours before steadily improving late
this morning.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Behind the cold front later this morning and this afternoon,
a cross-lake flow of chilly air will percolate some SHRA off
the lake. But, the overall short over-water fetch and dryness
of the airmass should limit them to mainly Warren and western
McKean Counties. Even the few stray -shra that may try to make
it to I-80 in west central PA will be brief and generally light.

High temps today will be much cooler than Thurs and temps near
and to the north of RT 6 could hold in the upper 50s.

Low level downslope, NW flow throughout the Central Ridge and
Valley Region of the state may help to preserve high temps from
coming in any lower than 7-8 deg F below normal. Any change
from our current high temp forecast over Central and Southern PA
would be down by at least a few deg F.

Min temps to start today will range from the upper 40s across
the NW Mtns to the mid and upper 50s over the Lower Susquehanna
Valley.

High pressure will build SE into the state late tonight and
should become centered over Central PA Saturday.

Saturday will feature a prolonged return to mostly sunny skies,
low daytime humidity with excellent vsby and high temps in the
upper 60s to mid 70s from the northern and western high terrain,
to the Valleys of Scent and SE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure from north-central Canada will keep it (very) dry
for the second half of the weekend. The compact upper low just
to our NE will finally lift away before the start of the work
week, but troughiness remains. The sfc high should fend off
rainfall until the second half of the upcoming week. However,
low level southeast flow could make for some pesky low clouds
at times. Temps rise only slightly for the first half of the
week (maxes in the 70s and lower 80s). The next chance for rain
will not arrive until late Wednesday into Thursday as the next
spoke of the upper level trough swings down from central Canada
to bring another cold frontal passage to the Mid-Atlantic and
New England regions.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Only some brief, and fairly light showers are expected for the
rest of the night, and these will wane. Left out prevailing
SHRA with reductions to vsby out of BFD, too. The SHRA look to
be transient, quick- moving and not too heavy as the dry air
infiltrates.

The cooler, moistening upslope flow in the wake of a cold front
will lead to gradually lowering CIGS overnight with a MVFR deck
for KIPT to KUNV and KAOO with IFR CIGS likely at KBFD and KJST.
LIFR stratus is expected at KBFD for several hours before
12Z. Downsloping at MDT and LNS should help dry any precip aloft
up before it reaches the ground.

Deepening vertical mixing and low-level advection of drier air
will cause a gradual rise in cloud bases into the MVFR then VFR
range at all airfields before 16Z Friday. Wind will gust into
the teens and perhaps 20KT during the time of deepest mixing
(16-20Z).

The lower clouds do appear to return Fri night for BFD and JST.
Otherwise, calm, clear skies should allow valley fog to form.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...AM valley fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Altoona set a record low temperature yesterday (8/27) of 43
degrees (45 in 1958).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert
AVIATION...Lambert/Dangelo
CLIMATE...Dangelo