007
FXUS61 KCTP 280905
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
505 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch issued through late tonight across the southeast
zones for potential flash flooding.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall remain possible today into this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and heavy rainfall remain possible today into this evening.

The second of two shortwaves embedded in the NW flow of a
deepening SE Canada and Ern U.S. trough (will be located across
the Upper Glakes at 12Z) and will move quickly SE and bring at
least another 1-2 rounds of MDT-HVY SHRA/TSRA across the CWA
today into this evening with localized additional rainfall
amounts of over 2 inches given the rich moisture with PWATS of
1.5-1.7 inches across all of the CWA.

The target for the greatest number of SHRA/TSRA is over our SE
CWA where a FLash Flood Watch was posted and extends through 2
AM EDT WED.

Models close off the mid and upper low over SE Ont and New York
State late tonight/Wed.

Some heavy rain potential will linger into Wednesday as the
slow moving upper low dips over northeast PA/SE NY before
drifting East toward southern New England Wed night. 36-48 hour
storm total rainfall could exceed 3 inches over some parts of
the northeast CWA by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complex set of TAFs for today, with spotty SHRA/TSRA increasing
in coverage across portions of central PA during the predawn,
followed by more numerous SHRA/TSRA alongside lowering cloud
ceilings as a trough of low pressure moves across the region
during the morning & afternoon. VFR is favored outside of any
SHRA/TSRA during the predawn hours. Gradual improvements behind
the low pressure expected after 18-21z, although low clouds
could redevelop across the Laurels and northern mountains later
tonight.

A more defined cluster of showers and storms associated with
the trough will move west to east across our area between the
early morning and late afternoon, resulting in prevailing MVFR-
IFR ceiling restrictions with periodic MVFR-IFR visibility
restrictions. Heating may be sufficient for strong to severe
thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania (best chance at
KMDT/KLNS), with gusty/damaging winds being the primary threat.

Outlook...

Wed...Restrictions likely with IFR to MVFR stratocu and
SHRA/TSRA beneath upper low

Thu...Improving conditions with lingering -SHRA. Patchy AM fog.

Fri...Mainly VFR.

Sat...Patchy AM fog. Restrictions possible in isolated
showers/storms mainly in the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ057>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Colbert/Teare