448
FXUS61 KCTP 130556
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
156 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Tweaked near term grids, but no major changes.
* Considering dropping FFA for the northern couple counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Numerous showers with some embedded thunder are moving thru
the area and may bring locally over 2 inches of rain and some
areas of flash flooding into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers and some embedded thunder are
moving thru the area and may bring locally over 2 inches of
rain and some areas of flash flooding into early Sunday.

Radar playing out the forecast very nicely. Much of the heavy
rain has confined itself to PBZ`s area, as expected. Have not
seen any 1"+ amounts on any buckets across our CWA, and FFG is
higher than that. It is good that we have the flood watch out,
but we may be able to start trimming it off as this push of rain
goes past. HRRR and RAP had been different on the timing of
rain exit from the watch area, but are now both languishing rain
over the CWA much of the night - just light rain, though. Thus
far, we have had no hydro issues, and the threat seems to be
coming to a close. But some training of 0.5-0.75" rainfall is
seen over the NW at this time. That will add onto the 0.25-0.5"
we had at first late this aftn. But, it still looks fairly tame
or even of no consequence. Will allow the watch to continue as
is for the time being. But, we may be able to drop it earlier
than 08Z (curr exp time).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A corridor of locally heavy showers associated with a passing
trough will gradually press eastward across central
Pennsylvania overnight and into Sunday morning. Organized
shower activity is expected to be east of our area by around
12Z, though spotty additional showers may be possible given
abundant moisture in place (PWATs of around 1.5-2" around
daybreak, particularly across the Susquehanna Valley). Moreover,
periods of IFR to locally LIFR are likely areawide through
Sunday morning given low-level moisture and light winds in
place. Lightning cannot be ruled out in any stronger showers
that develop overnight, with MUCAPE values of around 500-750
J/kg across central Pennsylvania, though deep warm cloud layer
and tall/skinny CAPE profile will favor rainfall efficiency.

Slow improvements to flight conditions are expected through
Sunday afternoon as low-level moisture lingers behind the main
swath of shower activity. Cloud cover will gradually break up
heading into the afternoon, with a period of clearing possible
ahead of a cold front which will be approaching from the NW.
This cold front may spark a line of late-afternoon showers with
embedded thundershowers over NW PA (KBFD), with any
thunderstorms trending towards showers as the front moves over
KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT in the evening, with only spotty light
showers expected as the front passes over KMDT/KLNS overnight.
Flow will shift from westerly to northwesterly behind the front,
with post-frontal winds of around 5-10 kts helping to mitigate
against fog development, though scattered stratocumulus may
bring intermittent MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings (primarily for
upslope/intermountain terminals, KBFD/KJST/KUNV/KIPT).

Outlook...

Sun...Early MVFR/IFR and moderate rainshowers across the state.
Additional SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon.

Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for
afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

Tue-Thur...Mainly VFR with a showers possible over NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ010-011-
017.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
AVIATION...Teare