499
FXUS61 KCTP 061124
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
624 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Slight risk severe weather outlook area shifted a bit
  eastward to US-219 corridor for Saturday afternoon/evening

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cloudy, soggy, and foggy conditions precede the first severe
thunderstorm risk of 2026 on Saturday afternoon/evening

2) Significant Springtime warming Saturday through Wednesday
followed by seasonal moderation/cool down into mid-March

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cloudy, soggy, and foggy conditions precede the
first severe T-storm risk of 2026 on Saturday afternoon/evening

Another day of low clouds, fog and spotty light rain in the cool
wedge pattern - the sluggish transition toward a much warmer
Springtime pattern drags on. Fog is dense in a few locations,
but not as widespread as the last couple of overnight to early
morning periods. Motorists should use caution and be prepared
for changing visibility. The best model QPF signal for light
rain is likely over the south central Alleghenies this
afternoon.

The cool wedge influence continues into Saturday with ~25 degree
temp gradient from southwest to northeast PA. The 24-hr max
temp for Saturday will likely be reached shortly before 12AM
Sunday in the eastern zones.

The first severe T-storm risk for CPA in 2026 still on track for
Saturday afternoon and evening. The primary threat area and
greatest risk (level 2 out of 5) will be focused from the Upper
Ohio Valley into western PA with the eastern extent along the
Allegheny Front. The likelihood of increasing stability to the
east of the mtns will greatly reduce the severe storm risk
across the central and especially eastern portions of the fcst
area. A linear convective mode is favored with a potential line
of strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds tracking
eastward from Ohio into western PA late in the afternoon or
evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant Springtime warming Saturday through
Wednesday followed by seasonal moderation/cool down into mid-
March

Cool wedge pattern finally breaks down and allows for a
significant springtime warming from Saturday into the middle of
next week. Frontal showers exit the area Sunday morning with
rain-free conditions likely holding into Tuesday. April to May-
like max/min temps fcst +20-30 degrees above the historical
average will challenge daily records in some areas Tue/Wed.
Cold frontal passage Wed/Thu will bring some rain followed by a
seasonable cool down for late in the week into mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A meandering frontal boundary and cold air damming in the ridge
and valleys of central PA will keep IFR conditions across the
area through this forecast period.

Plenty of low level moisture will result in IFR ceilings and
patchy LIFR FG through the morning hours. Ceilings will remain
near minimums across the area with only isolated areas above
700-900ft. As the sun sets this evening, expect a drop back to
solid IFR and LIFR for the overnight hours with some patchy
1/4SM to 1/2SM in FG. Ridgetops will be obscured in the
overcast through the period. Winds will remain generally light.

Outlook...

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and
east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds
could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

Mon...Restrictions possible as low-level moisture increases.

Tue.. Restrictions possible in the morning due to low-level
moisture.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ058.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Tyburski