925
FXUS61 KCTP 261621
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1221 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain-free conditions will persist through the end of October
and possibly the first day of November

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free conditions will persist through the
end of October and possibly the first day of November

Noon Update...
The cold front has made it to the USA/Canadian border, as this
front has limited moisture and will eventually lead to some
cloud cover this evening into the night. For the meantime clear
skies continue to dominate the region. Once the front passes
through, clear skies and high pressure returns. Large diurnal
variations will continue with highs in the 60s and lows in the
30s.

Previous discussion...
An area of high pressure will settle south across the Carolinas
and southern Appalachians today, allowing a weak/dry cold front
to drift southeast across the District this afternoon and
evening. Outside of a few sprinkles across the Northern
Mountains later today or early tonight, no measurable rainfall
is expected this entire week.

In the wake of the frontal passage, another, larger area of
high pressure will build Southeast across the Upper Great Lakes
and extend our lengthy string of rainfree conditions through
part or all of this upcoming weekend.

Locally dense large stream/river valley fog will occur across
central PA and the Susq valley early today, while light wind
and/or some mid and high clouds has limited much in the way of
fog development (so far) across the Northern Mtns and Laurel
Highlands where temp/dewpt spreads are between 1-6 deg F. Will
keep the mention of patchy fog for areas outside of the Susq
Mainstem and its West Branch Valley.

Moderate variations will occur in daily and nocturnal
temperatures as at least one weak, dry cold fronts moves SE
across the Commonwealth during the upcoming 5-6 days. Wind
direction/speed and cloud cover will also show some minor day-
day variations.

The first of the aforementioned dry cold fronts will slip SE
across the CWA late today/early tonight, but with only limited
moisture to work with, just some periods of BKN, shallow strato
cu and cirrus will occur with no rainfall expected beyond a few
sprinkles over the Northern Mtns tonight.

Have kept the PoPs below 5% for Mon night and that`s probably
stretching it on the safe side.

After a brief shot of seasonably cool air Tuesday and Wed
(directed mainly at the NE half of the state), a late
week/Saturday rebound in temps (to well above normal values in
the low-mid 60s across the Mtns and upper 60s to mid 70s in the
Central and Southern Valleys) will follow. A second, weak and
essentially dry frontal boundary could brush by across the
Northern tier counties Friday afternoon and night.

The next chance for any measurable rain is Sunday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A very strong inversion will result in fog and lower clouds
in some of the valleys across east-central PA this morning, with
vsby restrictions possible at any of the airfields, but highest
chances at IPT, MDT, and LNS. Otherwise, the only clouds
expected today are mid-high clouds from a weak trough aloft.
Winds will mostly be from the west today at 5-10 kts, and shift
more towards the north tonight as a dry cold front moves in. IFR
or MVFR cigs are possible across the northern tier and Laurels
(30-40 pct chc at BFD and JST) between 00z and 12z Tue.

Outlook...

Tue...MVFR cigs possible in the north and west early, trending
VFR.

Wed-Thu...VFR likely.

Fri...MVFR cigs possible mainly in the north and west due to a
cold front.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Devine
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Devine
AVIATION...Colbert/Martin