949
FXUS61 KCTP 091653
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Flood Watch expanded across the southern tier of central PA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Locally significant flash flooding possible across portions
of south central PA this afternoon and evening

2) Unsettled weather continues into the first half of the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally significant flash flooding possible
across portions of south central PA this afternoon and evening

Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage this
afternoon across southern PA. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are
likely at times, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally higher
amounts possible.

Synoptic ascent associated with shortwave lifting E/NE out of
KY is working in tandem with RRQ of a modest jet streak aloft
robust thermodynamics reflected by PWs measured via the 12Z
soundings that are near previous daily records (2.17" at IAD)
and a ribbon of MLCAPE already reaching 1000+ J/kg (2000 J/kg
within clearing sky conditions). MRMS hourly rainfall have been
above 1 inch in some areas, indicative of the impressive heavy
rain environment in place. Earlier this morning, rainfall rates
of ~1.5"/hr where achieved via ground truth report from
broadcast media partner - so rates >2" should be easily
attainable given the time of day and copious amount of moisture
available. WPC excessive rainfall outlook continues to favor a
"high-end" level 2/4 flash flood risk over the southern tier of
central PA where locally significant/urban flash flooding is
possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather continues into the first half
of the weekend.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday
ahead of a cold front that will slowly cross the region into
Saturday. Isolated flash flooding will be the primary concern
as the environment will still be supportive of very heavy
rainfall. A few showers remain possible on Saturday across the
southern half of the area as the cold front will be very slow to
move to our south. Sunday looks like a much drier day as the
front finally moves off to the south and a strong ridge develops
over the middle of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flying across south central PA may be interrupted and
restricted by showers and thunderstorms through 00Z Fri.
Storms will be capable of torrential rainfall likely resulting
in IFR/LIFR visibility. Gusty winds are also possible.

In the wake of this storms, partial clearing along with residual
low level moisture from recent rainfall and light/variable wind
may lead to areas of fog and low stratus developing late
tonight into early Friday morning. Expect sub-VFR restrictions
to improve to VFR by Friday afternoon with more scattered
showers and storms possible.

Outlook...

Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm.

Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR/no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ033>036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl