116
FXUS61 KCTP 150319
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1019 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Rain and a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday
  night; a strong/severe storm possible along/west of US-219
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow bands Sunday into
  Monday; changing road conditions/hazardous travel possible
* Light rain/snow possible in the southern tier Tuesday followed
  by a slightly milder/dry trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Model signals yesterday for more clouds was on point; there may
even be a few sprinkles over the eastern third of the CWA.
Limiting factor is very dry air near the sfc with dewpoints
falling through the 20s during the day. If cloud trends continue
to be persistent, min temps may end up being at least a few
degrees too cold on the margin. Followed earlier signal for some
clearing across the NW Alleghenies which would favor some areas
of advective fog late tonight into early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rain/showers spread southeast Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night ahead of cold front. Although smaller-scale
developments remain uncertain, latest model output offers little
change to prior runs concerning the large-scale pattern
evolution Saturday through Saturday night. There remains a low
end risk for a few stronger storms over western PA into the
Allegheny Front vicinity; SPC has maintained a MRGL risk SWO
that covers locations along and west of US-219.

Pattern turns windy and blustery behind the cold front late
Saturday night through Sunday. Wind gusts 30-40+ mph are
definitely in the cards with potential for advisory criteria.
The increasingly strong west-northwest flow will develop across
the Great Lakes and open up the potential for lake effect/upslope
snow into the interior of CPA Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night. Specifically, a multi-lake connected snowband or bands is
trending more likely to probable based on the latest higher res
model guidance extending from Lake Superior/Huron across Erie
into northwest PA. Probabilities are at least 50/50 for
advisory level snow accum especially in more persistent NW flow
trajectory bands. There may also be an emerging signal for some
squalls or very long fetch bands perhaps extending as far
southeast as the I-81 corridor.

We were keen to message the multitude of potential hazardous
weather concerns over the weekend in ranked order of confidence
(high to low):

-strong (non-tstm) wind gusts >40mph
-lake effect snow accumulation north of I-80 & west of US-219
-heavy snow bands or squalls
-strong thunderstorm wind gusts >50 mph

With rain prior to the cold blustery winds and snow, treatment
on roads may be challenging.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Snow showers and gusty wind continue on Monday and gradually
taper off Monday night.

Models show the next system for early next week ejecting out of
the central Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact
southern stream shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward
through the Ohio Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensemble data keeps
the bulk of precip and max POPs with this system along and
south of the MD line centered on next Tuesday. Any shifts in the
track or speed/timing could introduce some ptype issues on the
northern edge of the precip. That said, this system could also
skirt by far enough to the south and not bring any precip to
CPA.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip
odds trend higher into the end of next week. This pattern setup
again favors a potential overrunning rain/mixed ptype scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low clouds are gradually clearing from northwest to southeast
this evening with VFR conditions areawide. High clouds will move
in ahead of our next system. Some patchy fog is possible
tonight, but shouldn`t impact any airfields.

On Saturday, a strong, fast moving low will move down the Saint
Lawrence River Valley. Moisture will increase during the day,
with a gusty wind developing. A few light showers are possible
in the morning and early afternoon, but the majority of showers
should hold off until the late afternoon and evening. Ceilings
will lower during the day Saturday from west to east, with IFR
likely at BFD and JST, MVFR at AOO, UNV, and IPT, and VFR
prevailing at LNS and MDT.

Winds will turn more gusty out of the northwest Saturday night
and Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Restrictions are likely
at BFD and JST, with impacts possible farther southeast in lake
effect snow bands that take aim at any airfield.

Outlook...

Sun...SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Windy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Windy.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, otherwise dry.

Wed...Mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff