664
FXUS61 KCTP 171923
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
223 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Blustery with lake effect snow bands lasting into the
  evening
* Light rain/snow possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night
  followed by a slightly milder trend through late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Most areas are above freezing, and bands have not stayed
in one area long enough to add to a lot more in the way of snow
today, thus let flags expire at 18Z.

Gusty winds and bands of flurries and snow showers will continue
to taper off this evening, as the inversion height lowers. Also
the low levels are quite dry. Winds near advisory levels at
times in the southeast, but should be on the decrease over the
next several hours, as the deep low cotinues to pull away from
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast moving jet max at mid levels will quickly dig a bit
to the southeast later Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect some
light precipitation later Tuesday into early Wednesday morning,
but most of the guidance show the heaviest QPF mainly south
of the PA border. Timing is such as most of the precipitation
should be in the form of rain.

The 12Z EC has a large high pressure system pushing southward
for Wed. Most of not all of Thursday looks dry at this point.
Split flow in store for the area after this.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active fast northern stream jet stream will push the next
cold front toward the area on Friday.

At the same time, low pressure will be lifting to the north
and east from the southern plains.

While Friday should be still on the mild side, there is some
spread as one gets further out in time. NBM has some small
chance of mixed precipitation in the fcst for early Sunday
morning. Trend with temperatures late week is a bit colder
now. While the front could clear things out for the later
part of the weekend, there is a risk of the front slowing
down and stalling. If enough cold air was to get advected
southward at low levels, then one could see a mix.

Going past Sunday, then another deep northern stream low
pressure system to our north would likely give us at least a
brief warm up again, followed by another round of wind.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue to occur over the NW
corner of the central PA airspace through the late afternoon/early
evening, though coverage and intensity are on a downward trend.
Any effects on airfields should be confined to BFD from this
point forward, with periods of IFR or LIFR visibilities (and
mainly MVFR ceilings).

An occasional flurry or snow shower is possible at UNV and/or IPT,
and have included VCSH at both sites. But any restrictions will
be very temporary, if at all. All other TAF sites stay mainly
VFR through the 18Z 24 hour TAF period.

Gusty winds will slacken toward evening, generally blowing out
of the northwest at 15 to 25kts early this afternoon. Winds
will finally weaken late tonight through Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tues...Restrictions likely in rain and snow.

Wed-Thu...Isolated showers, restrictions likely from southeast
flow/low clouds.

Fri-Sat...Widespread rain expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner