534
FXUS61 KCTP 121843
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Adjusted snow chances up a bit through this afternoon - still
  only minor or no accumulation expected.
* Forecast highly similar to prior forecast packages.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow accumulations northwest today and this evening.

2) Winter weather threat for Sun-Sun night timeframe continues,
with very minor changes. Medium chance PoPs southern PA, but
still a 20 PoP all the way to the NY border.

3) Warmup in store for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow accumulations northwest today and this
evening.

Low-mid level northwesterly flow helping to drive continued snow
showers from northwest into central PA this afternoon. As upper
troughing lifts out to the northeast, allowing for surface
ridging to build in and inversion heights to lower, weakly
organized bands of snow showers will gradually dwindle this
evening. Of course, the constant flow of moisture uphill into
the Allegheny Plateau and the highest peaks of the Commonwealth
will help produce snowfall. Accumulations will be minor. Clouds
are lasting quite a bit farther downstream than the blend of
models suggests, and have nudged them upward throughout the next
12 hrs. The cloud cover and cold air in place will keep max
temperatures today down in the 20s to lower 30s.

                --------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Winter weather threat for Sun-Sun night
timeframe continues, with very minor changes. Medium chance
PoPs southern PA, but still a 20 PoP all the way to the NY
border.

A fast-moving low pressure system is still expected to move W-E
across the southern half of the CONUS this weekend. Ensembles
continue to be clustered around a Sun-Sun night timeframe when
precip might make it as far north as central PA. So, confidence
is the same to a little higher that Monday will be generally
dry. NBM PoPs look fine for this range, and have decreased very
slightly on the whole due to the trend southward and
faster/flatter. The ECMWF has waggled northward and now paints
0.10-0.20" QPF along the MD border. Temps are still marginal for
any frozen precip in the S (best signal is for rain there) but
move north of the PA Turnpike, the temp profile would suggest a
rain/snow mix or snow. Of course, it should be highlighted that
we only have chc PoPs at this point. So, there isn`t a 40 pct
chc of accumulating snow - just a 40pct chc that any measurable
precipitation will occur.

If any of the (potential) precip arrives during the daylight,
as currently hinted by the preponderance of models/ensemble
members, temps will be more favorable for rain. Progged temp
spread on Sunday is still wider than allows for high confidence
in any precip type. Middle of the road maxes are around 40F N
for most of the CTP CWA, and 40-45F in the valleys of the south-
central mtns where the PoPs are actually the highest.

In the end, we`ve made only small tweaks to this part of the
forecast vs the straight-up NBM output.

                --------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmup in store for next week.

Temps still on track to warm for early-mid next week as heights
rise on the eastern periphery of upper ridging migrating from
the Intermountain West into the central U.S. Many towns in the
srn third of the CWA could rise into the 50s for maxes each day
mid-week. Precip chances look very low to nil Mon & Tue as warm
advection occurs with PA devoid of sufficient deeper layer moisture.
Min temperatures Tue night may stay above freezing for most.
Medium confidence exists in a low pressure area or two rolling
W-E into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic along a front dropping
down into PA in the midweek timeframe. Confidence in the
equatorward progress that the front makes before waggling north
again is low. Even if the front drops in, temps should remain
above normal on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low-level clouds and isolated snow showers will be continuing
at BFD/JST through 13/12Z, thus giving high confidence in MVFR
ceilings in this timeframe. Recent NBM/GLAMP model guidance has
trended towards IFR conditions after 13/06Z, especially at BFD
which is backed by increased low-level moisture in recent RAP
model soundings. Elsewhere, ceilings at AOO/UNV will rise
quickly as snow showers diminish after 12/20Z. Model guidance
does indicate some increased low-level moisture at UNV/IPT which
could allow for MVFR ceilings to work their way back into the
airfield after 13/00Z, with more uncertainty after 13/06Z and
into the end of the 12Z TAF period.

After 12Z Friday skies should begin clearing from southeast to
northwest across the state with winds diminishing as well.
Mainly sunny skies and VFR conditions should be prevailing at
all TAF sites by 18Z Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Improving conditions late week into the weekend

Sun-Tue...Monitoring potential for winter weather on Sunday and
Monday. Most likely restrictions are in southern PA at this
time. Tuesday looks dry and VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Guseman/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Guseman/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Guseman/Dangelo
AVIATION...Beaty/Bowen