233
FXUS61 KCTP 251947
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
247 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Slightly milder temperatures today with steady rain followed
  by even milder conditions Wednesday with a few showers along
  and ahead of a strong cold front
* Becoming windy and much colder Wednesday night through Friday
* Lake effect snow may result in significant Thanksgiving
  holiday travel disruptions across northwest Pennsylvania,
  while scattered snow showers and a few squalls impact the
  weather across the Central Mtns, Laurel Highlands and possibly
  the Middle Susquehanna Valley

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Rain will continue across much of Central PA through the rest of
the day and may actually increase slightly in intensity for the
rest of the afternoon as forcing for ascent increases slightly
ahead of an approaching 30 to 40 knot low-level jet.
Precipitable water values will increase to around 1 inch, which
is around the 95th percentile for this time of year. Total
rainfall amounts through tonight will range from around a half
of an inch to three quarters of an inch. The rain gradually
tapers off to a few showers overnight as the axis of the LLJ
exits the region to the east. Temperatures remain mild
overnight, with lows ranging from the low 40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Additional showers will be possible on Wednesday afternoon along
and ahead of a strong cold front. Temperatures on Wednesday will
be even milder, with highs in the 50s and 60s, though these
values could end up being slightly high if the front arrives
earlier than currently anticipated. This cold front will usher
in much colder air for Wednesday night through Friday.

Model soundings show the potential for widespread wind gusts
Wednesday night and Thursday morning in the 45 to 50 mph range
as winds at the top of the mixed layer will range from 45 to 55
knots. If confidence continues to increase in these gusts
mixing down to the surface, a Wind Advisory may be needed for
much of Central PA. Gusty winds continue through the end of the
week, but may peak just below Wind Advisory criteria for both
Thursday and Friday afternoons.

The main focus for this period is still the potential for heavy
lake effect snow across northwest PA. While the low-level flow
will initially be out of the southwest, favoring areas north of
the Pennsylvania-New York border for the heaviest snow, winds
quickly become more westerly by early Thursday morning,
directing the snow bands into northwest PA. Most guidance shows
the flow remaining favorable for snow to continue over northwest
PA through Friday. With confidence continuing to increase in at
least portions of Warren and McKean counties seeing anywhere
from 6 to 12 inches of snow, we have upgraded the Winter Storm
Watch to a Lake Effect Snow Warning. Areas that see the most
persistent snow bands may even see snowfall amounts as high as
15 to 18 inches. Heavy snow combined with wind gusts up to 40
mph may make travel difficult to impossible at times. Lake
effect snow bands will almost certainly make it farther south
and east than those two counties, but confidence in placement
and snowfall amounts remains too low to issue any Winter Weather
Advisories yet.

Snow showers will also impact the western mountains Wednesday
night and Thursday and again on Friday with model RH profiles
showing saturation in the DGZ along with favorable upslope wind
trajectories. Friday may also feature a few snow showers or
squalls that could impact the the I-80 and I-99 corridors,
leading to rapidly changing travel conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The lake effect snow pattern comes to an end Saturday morning as
low-level flow backs and high pressure begins to build in. There
is still some uncertainty with speed/timing, but overall
guidance agrees in returning precip to the area on Sunday.
Thermal profiles appear to be cold enough to initially support a
mixed ptype transitioning to rain for the last day of November.
Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as cold
air in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic
zone over the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light to moderate rain dominating the airspace with deteriorating
cigs and visbys which will continue overnight and into
Wednesday. The rain will remain widespread through Tuesday night
before tapering off into scattered rain showers on Wednesday.

A cold front will come through Wednesday night bringing gusty
winds and lake effect snow across the NW through Friday.

The lake effect and upslope snow could become more widespread
into the Laurel Highlands (i.e. JST) as one heads further out
in time, i.e. on Friday. UNV and AOO could see some flurries
and snow showers as well. This based on winds shifting more
to west to northwest, from the west southwest direction. Often
this takes some time, as the warm lakes tend to modify the
wind fields.

Outlook...

Wed...Breezy with intermittent rain showers; becoming windy
with sharp CFROPA Wed night with gusts >30kt from 240-270 deg.

Thu-Fri...Windy with gusts 30-35kt from 270-300 degrees.
Frequent snow showers over the NW 1/2 of the airspace.

Sat...Improving conditions/lighter winds with snow showers
ending downwind of Lake Erie.

Sun...Scattered rain/snow showers. Restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
Saturday for PAZ004-005.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Bauco
NEAR TERM...Bauco
SHORT TERM...Bauco
LONG TERM...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Martin/Gartner