059
FXUS61 KCTP 202004
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
304 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mostly cloudy skies continue through Saturday morning
* Period of light rain later Friday through Friday night
  precedes a drying trend with more sunshine over the weekend
* Mild pattern with rain prior to Thanksgiving turns decidedly
  colder with temperatures below average by next weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Rather raw outside today with low clouds, high moisture
content, and low visibility across much of the area. Satellite
imagery depicts the northern edge of low clouds now crossing
US-6 and approaching the NY border while the eastern edge
continue to approach the NJ border. Temperatures are stuck in
the 30s and low 40s today with pockets of reduced visibility.

Clouds will stay firmly in place overnight, keeping temperatures
milder tonight (~+10F vs. last night) compared to the clear
skies and ideal radiational cooling conditions last night. Still
expecting some pockets of fog tonight, though temperatures above
freezing across a majority of the area will preclude freezing
fog and icy cars/sidewalks/etc. as was observed this
morning. Lows on Friday morning will range through the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Split stream flow aloft eventually sends a cold front through
CPA to end the week, driving a period of rain most likely from
late Friday afternoon through Friday night/AM Saturday. Earlier
in the week, we were watching the tilt and strength of an upper
trough drifting across the Great Lakes as a signal for how much
rain would fall. The trough has trended weaker and less
negatively tilted, which will lead to a lack of phasing with the
surface low and an overall lack of strong forcing. As such, QPF
has continued to trend lower. The heaviest rain will fall across
the southern tier and several models now keep rain suppressed
entirely south of the Turnpike/I-76. Some pockets of mixed
precip may be possible on the northern edge of the precip by
early Saturday morning, but the southward suppression of QPF
would render this precipitation type uncertainty a moot point.
Max temps Friday bounce 5-10F to the upside reaching the 45-55F
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Drying trend expected over the weekend behind the cold frontal
passage. Upper level trough pivoting through the Great Lakes may
deliver some rain/snow showers to the northern tier on Sunday.
On balance, it should be a quiet weekend with temps remaining
close to the historical average. We`ll see much more sunshine
later Saturday through Monday, which will be a welcome change.
Sunday morning is the coldest morning of the week ahead, with
partly cloudy skies supporting lows in the 20s.

A storm system will move through the eastern US toward the
middle of next week. While the exact timing remains uncertain
(typical fast/low biases evident in the GFS/ECMWF), a period of
rain appears most likely in the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame
ahead of the next split stream system tracking eastward from the
Central U.S. Temperatures will be mild as the main slug of
moisture moves through, with rain as the predominant
precipitation type. Colder air wrapping around the system could
produce some snow showers in the northwest mountains late in the
week. By next week, ensemble model data continues to advertise
a pattern shift toward colder/below average temperatures after
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure stretching from the Middle Atlantic
states into New England is keeping sfc winds light and variable.
ANd has lead to clear skies above the surface. Leftover low
level moisture from the rain and wet snow Wednesday lead to a
large area of dense fog across central PA overnight. This is
still affecting several airfields, JST/AOO/UNV, with only slow
improvement expected into late afternoon. Northern and southeast
airfields have stay or returned to VFR, BFD,IPT,MDT,LNS.

With the clear skies and light winds, in general expect a re-
formation of fog and low cigs overnight and into Friday morning
until some stronger forcing/winds arrive ahead of the next
weather system. Those TAF sites still foggy my improve just in
time for fog to redevelop there as well.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Rain spreading northeast across the region late Friday
and continuing into the mid morning hours of Saturday with
restrictions likely.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.
Tue...Restrictions in widespread rain possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner