135
FXUS61 KCTP 072006
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
306 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Showers ahead of and along a cold front will bring light to
  moderate rainfall to most of Central PA through early
  tonight.
* A break in the precip and fair/mild conditions for Saturday
* Coldest air of the season arrives Sunday night through
  Veteran`s Day with increasing confidence in light snow
  accumulation downwind of Lake Erie and over the Laurel
  Highlands

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cluster of SHRA moving thru the nrn mtns now with a trailing
line of SHRA back to DUJ. The rain is on-time and no changes to
QPF are necessary. Generally expecting 0.20-0.40" NW of UNV and
0.05-0.25" SE of Happy Valley. As with the last few bouts of
rain we`ve had, the most is falling where they need it the most
(larger deficit in the NW). No lightning currently, but the SW
does get some CAPE from many meso models. So, we`ve left the
mention in there. Some gusts could reach into the lower 40s in
any deeper convection, but not expecting any svr gusts.

After the rain exits the SE late this evening/early tonight, the
wind slackens nicely, generally going under 5KT for much of the
night. Lower clouds move back in after a brief break behind the
main rain band(s). Only isolated --SHRA are expected over the NW
overnight. Mins from guidance look fine, if maybe a little cool.
8H cold advection of 6-8C through the night will help it get
into the 30s NW, but the downslope will help keep most of the
area 10-15F above average mins.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Brief high pressure passing to our south will allow for a fair,
but rather typical day Sat. Stratocu for much of the area and
mainly sunny for the Lower Susq. Maxes close to normals for the
N, but still well (8-10F) above normals for the majority of the
CWA.

The progressive flow keeps things changing. Low pressure gathers
over the OH Valley and could bring a SHRA into the NW before
sunrise Sun. The low will be near Cedar Point 12Z Sun. Overnight
mins remain very mild (5-10F >norms) for early/mid Nov.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*First cold snap and taste of winter conditions Sunday through
 early next week

Another dynamic low pressure wave and potent cold front will
bring yet another period of breezy conditions and round of
gusty rain showers on Sunday. Reinforcing cold fronts thereafter
will usher in the coldest air so far this season early next
week through Veteran`s Day. Deep troughing will be carved out
over the Eastern U.S. resulting in a very favorable NW flow
pattern setup for the first widespread lake effect and
orographically enhanced snow accumulation. Max temps will be 10
to 20 degrees below the historical average Mon-Tue with wind
chills in the teens and 20s. Wind chills likely don`t rise above
the 20s and 30s at all on Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

Accumulating snowfall is favored across the typical northwest
mountains lake effect region and Laurel Highlands upslope snow
region. Current ensemble guidance indicates plowable snowfall
(2"+) is favored in the northwest mountains downwind of Lake
Erie. Antecedent warm ground temperatures should limit
accumulation at onset. East of I-99 and south of I-80, snow
showers are possible but accumulating snowfall is less likely at
this juncture.

The cold December-like air does not last long and is forecast
to retreat by the middle of next week with temperatures
returning to near seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Leading edge of rain/showers right on top of KBFD at the moment
and moving steadily east. Timing is right on with prev
forecasts. Should be into AOO-UNV-IPT right before 00Z. Gusts
are topping out in the 25-35KT range. Sharpening sfc
trough/front will keep the winds gusty until around 00Z. Gusts
then lower gradually thru 03-06Z. Wind doesn`t go calm
overnight, but does lighten to below 7KT at most sites by
sunrise. There will likely be a short break in the lower
clouds/cigs for many sites after the trough passes. but then
another deck moves in. Westerly flow off LE will bring some SHRA
near BFD overnight, and the moisture lingering overnight will
take BFD and JST into IFR. Elsewhere, MVFR deck is probable
(70%) at UNV-AOO-IPT for a bit later tonight, but these should
rise to VFR (>FL030) for the daylight hours Sat. The upper
trough/shortwave finally passes around sunrise. The bump in
heights and subsidence behind it should provide a decent flying
day for Sat across most of Central PA. Only BFD and JST will be
left in MVFR cigs after 13-14Z.

Next trouble in wx will be a system gathering over the OH valley
Sat night. The sfc low will pass over NW PA Sun AM, and drag
much colder air in through the day and into it will last into
the middle of the week. Only some sct SHRA on Sun ahead/along
the cold front. However, cross-lake fetch and cold air that will
will lead to a few days of lake effect snow/rain (showers. Snow
will be the precip type for the typical Allegheny and Laurel
Highland locations (BFD and JST). If they make it down into
UNV/AOO/IPT, they may be SHSN, but more likely SHRA during the
daylight hours, and light SHSN/flurries overnights.
Accumulations are expected in the Alleghenies, particularly on
Mon/night.

Outlook...

Sun...Windy FROPA, MVFR/showers changing from rain to snow or
mix by Sunday night over the western and central terminals. Sfc
wind gusts 20-30kts from 250-280 degrees.

Mon and Wed...Blustery with MVFR/IFR conditions in lake
effect/upslope snow at KBFD/KJST. MVFR to low VFR elsewhere. Sfc
wind gusts 20-30kts from 260-290 degrees.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Gartner
AVIATION...Dangelo