132
FXUS61 KCTP 120600
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Excessive rain outlook areas adjusted for today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A dry start to the day, but moderate to perhaps heavy rain
expected later today into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry start to the day, but moderate to perhaps
heavy rain expected later today into early Sunday.

Expect showers and storms to form later this afternoon into
Sunday morning, as warm advection brings back the more humid
airmass.

This will be followed by more showers and storms later Sunday
afternoon and evening, as stronger dynamics and cold front
work on the humid airmass.

Not a lot cold advection, abnormally warm and moist air
take aim at the Great Lakes area again on Tuesday, as a
strong upper level ridge builds northward from the TN Vly.

ERO for today adjusted to one area, and SPC outlook for
Sunday trimmed across the southeast. Complex fcst, as been
the case this summer.

Still holding off on a flood watch for now, given nothing
going on yet on radar, still time to see how things play out
later this aft.

More information below.

Guidance does put numerous heavy bands of rain over the area.
FFG lower west and north, but heaviest QPF could be to the
east. Also maybe things more an issue later Sunday, depending
on where that rain falls today.

Again, the problem is: where? With uncertainty high as it is
and FFG getting higher slowly, still holding off.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Per the last discussion, clouds will gradually overspread our
area from SW to NE late tonight into early Saturday as a
disturbance approaches from the Tennessee Valley. Confidence
remains low in overnight fog given increasing cloud cover, with
VFR conditions favored through the night.

Transport of plentiful moisture (PWATs of around 1.5-2") ahead
of the disturbance will contribute to lowering cloud ceilings
through the day on Saturday, beginning around the Alleghenies
(KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV) where S/SE flow may enhance cloud cover
through upslope. Farther east (KIPT/KMDT/KLNS), VFR is favored
for much of the daytime given the disturbance`s slow eastward
progression, with ceiling restrictions to mainly MVFR/IFR
favored later in the evening and overnight.

Isolated showers are possible throughout the day on Saturday
given ample moisture, with more numerous showers possible along
the Alleghenies during the afternoon/evening due to upslope
flow & convergence along the ridgeline. Given the moist
environment, locally heavy rainfall with intermittent visibility
restrictions (mainly MVFR-IFR) may accompany these showers.
Later in the evening and through the night, showers are expected
to congeal into a band of heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms as the disturbance begins to cross over the area.
Embedded thunderstorms appear more likely at KBFD/KJST/KAOO
where MUCAPE may rise to ~1000 J/kg, with lowering chances
heading eastward.

Overnight, low stratus and areas of fog may develop and/or
persist in the wake of this band of showers and storms,
particularly near KBFD/KJST where skies may clear before
sunrise & contribute to development of radiation fog.

Outlook...

Sun...Early MVFR/IFR and moderate rainshowers across the state.
Additional SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon.

Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for
afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

Tue...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible over NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
AVIATION...Teare/Bowen