037
FXUS61 KCTP 101855
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
255 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Not as cold tonight with increasing clouds
* Mostly cloudy with periods of rain this weekend through
  Columbus Day; turning breezy in southeast PA
* Trending drier with seasonal temperatures Tue-Thu next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Somewhat tricky forecast tonight with the expectation of
increasing clouds late behind a moistening southeasterly low
level flow; but clearing this evening into early tonight could
allow temps to cool off a bit more than forecast. On balance,
not as cold as last night with min temps more in the 40-50F
range. Some patchy fog is possible in the central and northern
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Trending mostly cloudy to start the weekend with light
rain chances increasing Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Closed upper low near Lake Erie and higher moisture advection
over the Lower Susq favors max POPs/QPF in these areas through
00Z Sunday. Sfc ridge squeezed between the upper low and coastal
storm suggests low clouds and perhaps some fog or drizzle over
the interior counties by late in the day on Saturday.

QPF has trended lower over the weekend with delayed interaction
of the two systems. That said, we still anticipate periods of
beneficial rainfall through Sunday night. P-gradient with
coastal low off the Mid Atlantic coast will still bring breezy
conditions to the southeast zones with max gusts 25-35 mph
Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Breezy conditions and rain could last into early Tuesday
particularly over the eastern zones based on the latest model
guidance depicting a slower upper level pattern evolution.

Drying trend still expected Tuesday with mainly dry wx into the
second half of next week. Another push of seasonably colder air
appears poised to arrive by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread VFR flying conditions will continue through early
this friday evening.

The scattered to broken layer of flat cu/strato cu seen on
visible satellite imagery across the SE half of the CWA this mid
afternoon, will slowly lower and congeal into bkn-ovc MVFR
layer of stratus between 11/00Z and 11/06Z along and to the east
of the Allegheny Front (roughly near and to the SE of the
I-99/Route 220 corridor).

MVFR at KJST and KBFD will develop between 11/10Z and 11/12Z.
Around the same time Sat morning, KLNS and KMDT will see the
stratus base lower to IFR as the easterly low-level flow
strengthens and pushes the moist marine layer inland well ahead
of a developing/nwd moving sfc low near the South Carolina
Coast.

The MVFR CIGS across the Central Ridge and Valley region should
lift and/or scatter-out for up to several hours during the late
morning through mid afternoon hours Saturday as low level
ridging/subsidence enhances between the aforementioned coastal
low and another sfc low/upper level trough moving ESE toward the
Lower Glakes.

Low level wind shear from a strengthening east-southeasterly low
level jet will develop late Sat afternoon or evening across the
Susq Valley and points east, and after midnight at KAOO, KUNV
and KJST with IFR and areas of LIFR CIGS and generally MVFR to
VSBYS expected Sat night through Sunday with periods of rain,
drizzle and locally dense upslope fog/very low cigs on the east
facing slopes of the ridges.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon...widespread IFR Cigs and MVFR VSBYS with areas
of LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS and rain/wind potential increasing
particularly over the southeast airfields.

Tue...Continued breezy with rain ending/clouds breaking with
gradual improvement.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert