469
FXUS61 KCTP 281914
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
314 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes from previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much drier air has pushed into the region and will result in
an fair and dry conditions through Friday with low humidity.


2) Upper low over eastern Canada will spin a compact closed low
through the northeast Friday-Saturday. Colder air and a dry
spell will follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Much drier air is moving in, and will result in
a fair and rain-free day.

850 mb thermal trough dropping south from New York state through
this afternoon with another deg C or so of additional cooling
at that level through 22Z.

This feature will help to create a large area of sct-bkn stratocu
across the CWA. A glancing blow of cooler temps in the 700-500
mb layer will lead to some deeper clouds across the Eastern
portion of our CWA with a few sprinkles expected there in the
through 22Z.

Temps are within about 1-2 deg F of their highs, ranging from
the low to mid 60s across the Northern Tier to the low-mid 70s
in the Scent Valleys.

-------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper low over eastern Canada will spin a
compact closed low through the northeast Friday-Saturday. Colder
air and a dry spell will follow.

High pressure aloft and at the sfc will set up just to our west,
and deflect a compact/rather potent upper low off to our east,
but not by much.

The cold front associated with the upper feature will arrive
late Friday. Other than kicking up the wind a little late Fri-
Fri night, it should not generate measurable precip in the CWA
due to the minimal moisture held by the system.

The air aloft will be cold enough across Northern New England
(mainly NH and Western Maine) to produce several inches (or
more) of snow across elevations AOA 2500 ft MSL Friday
night/early Saturday. A few wet snow flakes aren`t out of the
question on the ridge tops north and east of KIPT toward
daybreak Saturday as 850 mb temps dip to around -2C across that
part of the state with wet bulb zero heights down to around 1.5
KFT AGL.

The more-notable change will be the reduction in temps on
Saturday as 8H temps dip close to 0C in the NE and low single
digits elsewhere. NBM does not seem to reflect this possibility,
so we went with a blend of MOS guidance and NBM for maxes. Sat
night could get pretty chilly as the wind dies down overnight.
Some places in the nrn tier could go below 40F, with all the CWA
hitting the 40-45F range for mins. Temps should rebound into
the 70s Sunday.

The chance of precip inches up into the 20-30pct range for the
first half of the new week starting with another shot of lowered
heights/pressure aloft around Monday. But, there really aren`t
any strong signals for a widespread rainfall for days 4-8 as the
upper ridge to our west holds firm and makes it tough for Gulf
and Pacific moisture to get into PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mainly
dry conditions. A few sprinkles possible through late this
afternoon at KIPT.

Northwest winds will average in the 10 to 15 knots range with
gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely as vertical mixing peaks at 6
kft AGL and mixes down winds in the mid-upper 20s (KTS) at the
top of the layer.

Cool air aloft combined with diurnal heating will allow for
scattered to broken clouds with bases between 4000 and 7000
feet. Skies quickly clear out after sunset and winds will
decrease to less than 5 knots.

Just some sct-bkn alto cu and cirrus will move SE across the
state on Friday with wind gusts from the west-northwest
averaging 5-8 kts less than today (Thursday).

Outlook...

Thu-Mon...VFR with no significant weather expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Lambert