467
FXUS61 KCTP 041044
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
644 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe thunderstorm risk added for Saturday afternoon and
  evening
* Best odds for rain: shifted to Saturday PM/reduced for Sunday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Ongoing dry spell precedes surge of midsummer heat for the
first weekend of June

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
Saturday afternoon and evening

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Ongoing dry spell precedes surge of midsummer
heat for the first weekend of June

The 7-9 day stretch of dry weather continues through Friday.
Rising temperatures along with a moderate uptick in dewpoints
still on track to deliver a surge of midsummer heat for the
first weekend of June. Max temps climb +5-10F above climo into
the 75-85F range this afternoon followed by widespread 80-90F
readings Friday and Saturday. Following a modest cool down on
Monday, emerging model data continues to signal dry precip
pattern with above normal temperatures for the rest of next
week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible Saturday afternoon and evening

A cold front sliding southeastward from the Great Lakes will
bring an increasing chance for showers/t-storms Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night. SPC has introduced a level 2/5
severe t-storm risk focused over western PA where the most
favorable overlap of stronger instability, vertical shear, and
forcing for ascent are expected to materialize. Showers and a
couple storms continue Saturday night into early Sunday as the
cold front moves southeast across CPA. Model data has reduced
odds for rain on Sunday with the best chance/max POPs now
focused over south central into southeast PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge of surface high pressure moving across the Allegheny Mtns
of Western PA and WVA early today will maintain control of our
weather through the end of the TAF period with VFR conditions
and light wind.

Mainly clear skies (SKC-FEW 250) this mid morning will be
followed by abundant sunshine mixed with/filtered by just a few
flat/afternoon pancake cu and some thin high clouds (SCT-
BKN250) by midday today.

Light and variable wind early on will increase to 5-8 KT from
west to northwest for the late morning and afternoon hours today
as the center of the aforementioned sfc high slides south of
Pennsylvania.

Outlook...

Thu night-Fri...VFR with no significant weather expected. Any
nighttime fog will be limited.

Sat...VFR conds favored, with brief restrictions possible in
late-day -SHRA.

Sat night-Sun...Restrictions possible in more widespread
SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...VFR favored with restrictions possible from post-frontal
stratocu or lingering -SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert