810
FXUS61 KCTP 091813
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
213 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Frost/freeze conditions could end the growing season across
  parts of central PA tonight through daybreak Friday
* Crisp and pleasant Fall weather to end the week with
  increasing clouds Friday night
* Columbus Day weekend starts dry and likely ends wet with heavy
  rain and gusty winds possible over eastern Pennsylvania

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear and cold tonight with widespread frost/freeze conditions
expected. Min temps in the 25-40F range are 5 to 15 degrees
below the historical average. This may end the growing season in
parts of central PA (PNS will be sent later Friday morning). A
frost advisory and freeze warning remains in effect from 11PM
this evening to 9AM Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Chilly and frosty start Friday followed by lots of sunshine with
highs in the 55-65F range or +/- 5 degrees either side of climo.
A bit warmer on the margin vs. Thursday. Low clouds may reach
the Lower Susquehanna Valley by Friday afternoon/evening with a
general increase in cloud cover across all of CPA Friday night
into Saturday. A relatively milder/moist east to southeast flow
will result in a much warmer (+7-15F) [Friday] night with more
seasonable low temps in the 35-50F range. Hires model data even
suggest potential for ridge-shrouding fog and pockets of BR/DZ.

Compact closed upper low over lower MI will interact and merge
with Carolina coastal storm on Saturday. Large scale lift and
anomalous easterly flow (-3SD @850mb) will result in a steadily
increasing opportunity for rain during the day with widespread
rain/low clouds/drizzle by Saturday night. Max/min temps trend
milder with the largest 24 change to low temps +10F warmer vs.
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strengthening coastal low pressure system will move slowly
north along the Mid Atlantic (Delmarva/NJ) coast Sunday into
Monday. Very strong easterly/onshore flow (up to -4SD@850mb)
could bring heavy/soaking rain bands to parts of eastern PA.
Primary impacts at this juncture would be a somewhat limited
risk of flooding along with potential for wind gusts >35 mph. We
continue to highlight the heavy rain/wind risk in the HWO
particularly over the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

The phased upper level system and coastal low are projected to
track eastward Tuesday, bringing and end to the rain. Breezy
conditions may persist into midweek as p-gradient remains
fairly tight with high pressure drifting southeast from the
Great Lakes. Expect an improving/drying trend on balance with
seasonal cooling trend Tue-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions prevail through Friday afternoon under
mainly clear skies. Odds for sub-VFR ceilings will increase over
the southeast airfields by Friday as low level easterly flow
increases to the north of Carolina coastal low pressure.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR.

Sat-Mon...Low clouds and rain/wind potential increasing
particularly over the southeast airfields.

Tue...Continued breezy with rain ending/clouds breaking with
gradual improvement.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056-058-063-064.
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
PAZ057-059-065-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl