245
FXUS61 KCTP 021845
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
145 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Introduced a bit more in the way of valley fog for early
  Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild and dry weather will continue
until late Wednesday Night.

2) Periods of showers preceding and accompanying a
cold frontal passage. Cooler and a return to mainly dry
conditions will follow for Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild and dry weather will continue
until late Wednesday Night.

The close proximity of a surface high to our southeast will
keep winds light from the SE or South and weather tranquil until
Wednesday. A sprinkle isn`t out of the question later tonight
into tomorrow in the northern tier of counties but any
appreciable precipitation looks to remain north of the NY
border.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first
half of this week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and
keeping temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much
of week. Highs in the lower 70s are in store for all but the
higher elevations on Wed. As a weakening low pressure system
approached from the west along with an upper level closed low,
the tightening pressure gradient may allow for stronger
southerly winds on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of showers preceding and accompanying a
cold frontal passage. Cooler and a return to mainly dry
conditions will follow for Friday through Sunday.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the second half of
the week. Very late Wed night is the earliest anyone will see
precip as a complex system develops over the middle of the
country. There is still uncertainty regarding exactly how this
system pans out with a few phasing jets to keep track of. The
theme in this morning`s solutions was the vertical stacking that
became apparent as this system moves towards us. The main
surface low moves under the center of the upper level low before
impacting us and begins to weaken/occlude as it loses the best
ascent. With a possibly more diffuse, but still apparent,
boundary a more stratiform precipitation mode may be favored
with a few heavier pockets possible.

GFS and ECMWF disagree on the degree of how far a shortwave
trough swings down from Canada on Friday. Should a more
progressive solution develop, this may sweep through another
cold front and round of precipitation Friday into Saturday.
Regardless, long range guidance hints at cooler temperatures
this weekend trending more seasonable with dry conditions on the
back of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Good VFR with light wind continues today as high pressure
remains a stronghold over the eastern U.S. Cirrus clouds between
FL180-FL250 will have no impact on flight planning weather.
Toward the end of the forecast period, -SHRA may creep into
northwest PA so a VCSH was added to KBFD. Chances now remain
less than 20%.

Patchy valley/river fog is possible overnight but over two weeks
of dry air will help keep most of this at bay with the best
chance (20%) over the southeast region. The next chance for
impactful precipitation will arrive Wednesday night into
Thursday ahead of a low pressure system that is expected to
break this spell of dry weather from the last two weeks.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday
and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more
likely in showers.

Fri-Sat...Scattered to isloated rain, cloudy conditions and sub
VFR ceilings possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambrech
KEY MESSAGES...Lambrech
DISCUSSION...Lambrech
AVIATION...Bowen/Tyburski