387
FXUS61 KCTP 120502
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
102 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Only minor tweaks to the going forecast

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Freeze and frost conditions could kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation tonight into early Tuesday morning

2) Cool/Wet weather for midweek with limited/light rain amounts

3) Early May chilly pattern projected to break down this
weekend triggering a significant summerlike warmup into next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Freeze and frost conditions could kill crops and
other sensitive vegetation tonight into early Tuesday morning

Temps/dewpoints/sky/wind are on track with only minor tweaks
to the next couple of hours for the latest trends. Still
looking at a very frosty morning.

Previous disc...
"Self destruct" cu field fades into tonight with low pwat air
and clear/calm synoptic conditions setting up a very chilly and
frosty night. Confidence is high for frost/freeze in the
advisory and warning areas and could even see patchy frost in
the outlying rural areas in the LSV. Guidance hints at some
pesky cloud cover over southwest PA that could hinder
frost/freeze in parts of the Laurel Highlands, but with any
breaks and elevation we still felt headlines were needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cool/Wet weather for midweek with limited/light
rain amounts

A seasonably strong upper level trough will carve out over
Great Lakes Tue-Thu and eventually close off over New England
by the end of the week. The upper trough and its associated sfc
low and trailing cold front will bring wet weather to CPA for
midweek with periods of rain/showers and perhaps a few t-storms.
Total rainfall amounts through 00Z Friday are on the light side
and less than 0.50 inch in most locations. Look for steadier
light rain Tuesday night-Wednesday to become more showery by
Thursday before conditions start to dry out Thursday night-
Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Early May chilly pattern projected to break down
this weekend triggering a significant summerlike warmup into
next week

Guidance signals a significant warmup on the horizon as the
upper level trough ejects eastward into the northern Atlantic
and mean jet stream flow lifts northward. This large scale
pattern shift should deliver a significant warm surge into the
back half (2H) of May with summerlike temperatures forecast by
early next week. There is even some potential heatrisk
considerations (after a rather cool stretch) with current max
temps in the 80-90F range on Monday. Rainfall should remain
light/limited with low chances for sct showers or isolated
t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will keep dry weather with VFR conditions through
06Z Wed.

Strong warm advection could result in a shower at BFD toward
06Z Wed, but the airmass is quite dry, so left showers out
of the BFD TAF.

Main chance for showers will be during the day on Wednesday.
A cold front will move into the area later in the day on
Wed. A coastal low forming will keep colder, breezy, and
times wet conditions into early Friday morning.

Outlook...

Wed...Restrictions likely with showers and PM thunderstorms.
South winds shift to westerly behind a cold front.

Thu...Lingering clouds and showers with restrictions north/west
and improvement southeast.

Fri...VFR likely.

Sat...At least brief restrictions may develop by afternoon, with
potential scattered shower activity.

&&

.CLIMATE...
State College COOP (STCP1) recorded the 20th coldest first 10
days of May going back to 1893 (133 years). The average
temperature was 51.1 degrees and tied 1995 and 1893 as the 20th
coldest on record.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-025>028-
034-035-045-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl