808
FXUS61 KCTP 151915
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
215 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening; a
  strong/severe storm possible along/west of US-219
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow bands Sunday into
  Monday; changing road conditions/hazardous travel possible
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday followed by a slightly milder
  trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing across northwest PA
along a warm front associated with a surface low tracking well
to our northwest. These storms will gradually increase in
coverage through the afternoon, though the best chance for rain
will come later this evening as a cold front crosses the region
from northwest to southeast, bringing a narrow convective line
with it.

Dew points will continue to rise behind the warm front through
the rest of the afternoon, reaching the mid 50s over the western
mountains, but instability will remain limited (less than 300
J/kg) thanks to extensive cloud cover. Winds a few thousand feet
above the ground will increase to the 45-50 knot range by the
time the cold front enters northwest PA, so there will be at
least some potential for the convection to mix a few strong to
marginally severe wind gusts down to the surface. SPC has
maintained the marginal risk for severe weather over far western
portions of the CWA to highlight this potential. The threat for
severe weather will decrease quickly with eastward extent as
the line of storms encounters a much more stable environment
east of US-219.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Much colder air will move into Central PA on Sunday behind the
departing cold front and will allow for lingering showers over
northwest PA to mix with and eventually change over to snow
during the morning. Lake effect snow becomes more likely
downwind of Lake Erie during the afternoon as colder air aloft
moves over the lakes and a Lake Huron connection develops. There
is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the placement of the
heaviest snow bands, but the low-level flow favors Warren and
McKean counties for the heaviest snowfall. Those areas may see
as much as 3 to 6 inches of snow through Monday, with lesser
amounts expected as you move south and east. Much of the high
res guidance suggests the potential for lake effect
bands/squalls to reach as far south and east as I-80 and I-99
which may lead to rapidly changing travel conditions along those
roadways.

A tight pressure gradient behind the departing system will also
support strong wind gusts over much of the area in the 30 to 40
mph range on Sunday. Confidence continues to increase in wind
gusts exceeding 45 mph over the Laurel Highlands and we have
issued a Wind Advisory for Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, and Blair
counties. Winds remain gusty Sunday night and Monday, but should
stay below advisory strength.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Snow showers and gusty winds gradually taper off Monday night as
high pressure briefly builds into the region. Models show the
next system for early next week ejecting out of the central
Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact southern stream
shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward through the Ohio
Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensembles continue to show two
possible solutions for this system with around half of the
members keeping the bulk of the precip to our south, while the
other half shows a more northward track for this system. This
second solution would bring the potential for mixed precip to
the region.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip odds
trend higher into the end of next week. Most guidance shows this
system tracking to our west, which would result in an all rain
scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main concern this afternoon is LLWS, as sfc winds are still
very light.

Other concern for the far west is thunder, starting to see
storms over Lake Erie as of 1 PM. The airmass not very moist
to the east over our area, so left storms out of the TAFS.
Will adjust as needed.

CIGS do lower later, as some showers move into the area.

Main concern for later tonight into Monday will be gusty
winds. Also (mainly for BFD and JST), bands of lake effect
snow showers set up Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday.
Wind gust in the 35 to 50 mph range possible.

Outlook...

Mon...SHSN NW. Windy. VFR conditions SE.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, otherwise dry.

Wed-Thu...Chance of a shower, but overall mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Bauco
NEAR TERM...Bauco
SHORT TERM...Bauco
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
AVIATION...Martin