012
FXUS61 KCTP 272325
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
725 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Chilly fall-like pattern with low humidity continues through
  the end of August
* Reinforcing cold front to bring showers Thursday night and
  Friday: best chance north of I-80/west of I-99
* Meteorological Fall (September 1) kicks off with continued
  pleasant and dry conditions.
* Cooler than normal temperatures likely to prevail into the
  first weekend in September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Skies have cleared out this evening with the loss of daytime
heating, but a weak short wave will bring more in the way of
mid and high clouds tonight. This cloud cover should limit the
extent of valley fog, but at least some patchy fog is still
possible. Temperatures will once again plummet into the 40s for
much of the area, with some upper 30s likely in the typical
cold spots in the northwest mountains.

Nice weather continues into Thursday with a slight uptick in
max temps thanks to a wind shift to the southwest in advance of
a cold front. Scattered showers are likely Thursday night into
Friday as the aforementioned cold front and associated upper
level trough pivots and digs southeastward from the Lower Great
Lakes across the central Appalachians. Best forcing will be
closer to the parent low that is progged to move across Ontario,
so we`ve got the highest PoPs north of I-80 at this point.
Rainfall amounts should generally be less than a tenth of an
inch south of US-6, with up to half an inch near the NY/PA
border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The combination of clouds and rain on Friday in northwest PA
will keep temperatures quite chilly - only in the lower 60s by
the afternoon there. The reinforcing shot of cold air behind the
cold front will also result in Saturday being the coldest
morning of this stretch for most. Frost will be possible in the
deepest valleys of northwest PA where temperatures could drop as
low as the middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some variation in model solutions, but overall the eastern
states will stay colder than normal for the first week of the
new month, as a large scale upper level ridge remains over the
western states.

Earlier discussion below.

Another sfc high from Canada will descend over the Eastern U.S.
and provide dry and comfortable weather for Labor Day weekend.

Max temps are fcst to trend a bit warmer (closer to the historical
average for early September) by Labor Day. Low humidity, plenty
of sunshine, and rain-free conditions will be an excellent
kickoff of Meteorological Fall, which officially starts
September 1st.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected overnight with scattered
high clouds moving in as a weak upper level disturbance tracks
through Pennsylvania. While patchy valley fog may form tonight,
confidence is too low to include any mentions with the 00Z TAF
package. In fact, the HREF shows only a 20% chance of visibility
dropping below 6 miles.

Cloud cover will increase through the day on Thursday ahead of
an approaching shortwave. The surface cold front will move into
northwest PA during the late afternoon and will bring showers to
BFD around 22Z. These showers will spread southeastward through
the evening and into the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR cigs with isolated diurnal rain showers.

Sat-Mon...AM valley fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin/Bauco
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Martin
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Martin
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Martin
AVIATION...Bauco