599
FXUS61 KCTP 041130
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
630 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered maxT on Saturday 11/7

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-long dry
spell coming to an end overnight into Thursday

2) Trending cooler this weekend with light rain downwind of
Lake Erie

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-
long dry spell coming to an end late tonight into Thursday

Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft
will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week.
Max/Min temps will be 10 to 20 degrees above the historical
average for the first week of November, but should fall short of
daily record highs (see climate section).

A leading frontal band of light rain should reach the western
Alleghenies around or shortly after midnight and continue
spreading eastward across central PA through Thursday morning.
Fcst rainfall amounts are 0.25" inch or less through 00Z Fri in
most areas and will end the 2.5 weeks-long dry spell.

The front slows/stalls near the I95 corridor Thursday night. A
shortwave trough/closed H5 low dropping southeast from the Great
Lakes is expected to reinvigorate precipitation along the
nearly stationary frontal zone on Friday which could clip the
far southeast zones/Lower Susquehanna Valley. Model trends have
been shifting this rain farther to the east/closer to the coast
over the past few cycles. A dry slot may keep most locations dry
Thursday afternoon into Friday following the initial period of
rain late tonight through Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with light rain
downwind of Lake Erie

Seasonably cooler/breezy pattern to start the first full
weekend of November. The passage of closed H5 low followed by
mean cyclonic flow favors persistent clouds and periods of lake
enhanced rain over the western and central Alleghenies on
Saturday. We were keen to manually adjust max temps a few
degrees lower on 11/7 to account for the cooler pattern shift
which looks to continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy fog is in the vicinity of the southeast airfields (KMDT
and KLNS) this morning and could expand northwest to KIPT and
KUNV before the fog mixes out. Otherwise, high clouds are
beginning to stream in from the west. Fog likely mixes out
between ~14-16Z, with VFR conditions likely to continue through
00Z Thursday with very high (~80-90%) confidence. After 00Z
Thursday, widespread restrictions are expected to build from
west to east with rain showers and lowering ceilings at all of
central Pennsylvania`s airfields. IFR or LIFR ceilings are
likely areawide along with LLWS given the presence of a 40-50kt
850mb LLJ.

Outlook...

Thu...Rain showers. Sub-VFR conditions become more likely in
showers.

Fri-Sat...Scattered to isolated rain, cloudy conditions and sub
VFR ceilings possible.

Sun...Mainly VFR, isolated rain in NW PA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current Consecutive Days streak without measurable rain:

10/17 through 11/3 (18 days): Harrisburg, Williamsport,
Altoona, State College

10/18 through 11/2 (17 days): Johnstown

Daily record highs for 11/4 and 11/5:

Harrisburg           78/1994 | 79/1975
Williamsport         75/2003 | 77/1994
Altoona              77/2003 | 77/2015
Bradford             74/2015 | 76/2024
State College        78/2003 | 75/2015

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Banghoff/Beaty
CLIMATE...Steinbugl