949
FXUS61 KCTP 110922
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
522 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mostly cloudy with periods of rain this weekend into Columbus
  Day; turning breezy in southeast PA
* Trending drier with seasonal temperatures Tue-Thu next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog forming in the W Branch and a few of the other normal spots
early this morning. A couple of patches of lower clouds are
sliding in from the S/SE, and we expect them to expand slightly
through the day. The upper low moving down from the Upper Great
Lakes and the northward progress of the coastal low will put us
in a squeeze play of clouds today. Light precip will follow as
the clouds get thicker and the upper low provides instability
and broad lift. The NW zones will probably have some very light
just before noon and, by late aftn, much of the SE will have
some light rain. The SW will likely stay sunniest the longest.
Wind becomes decidedly easterly, but not strong/gusty today.
Temps will be 3-8F milder today (60s) vs Fri with the greatest
upswing over the Laurels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The rain squeezes into the central mtns early this evening. The
moisture from the ESE will meet up with the advancing upper low
and could develop some taller SHRA. Have left out mentions of T
at this point, since the melding doesn`t happen until
evening/early night when diurnal stability is increasing. Still
a strike or two is not out of the question. Precip is expected
to be heaviest in the central and NErn mtns. Those SHRA may drop
up to an inch of rain before they drift to the west a little.
FFG is super high and without deep convection, no flooding
worries exist. But, the rain doesn`t get all that far to the
west overnight, fizzling as it get into the far wrn mtns. The
morning on Sunday looks largely dry. A second wave of forcing
from the SE/coastal low swings into PA later Sunday. Lift and
moisture remain favorable for Sun night and Monday with several
rounds of RA/SHRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not noticing any changes in the long term after the rain ends on
Monday night or very early Tues as the coastal low slides east
and into the deep ocean. However, one minor blip in the dry
forecast for the rest of the week is a moisture-starved cold
front slated to arrive Tues night/Wed. NBM PoPs are 20-30 pct
across the N, but dry elsewhere. Without much moisture, we`ll
likely see this trend drier/lower PoPs over the next couple of
days. The cold air behind the front will not be as cold as what
we`ve seen the past couple of days.

Prev...
Breezy conditions and rain could last into early Tuesday
particularly over the eastern zones based on the latest model
guidance depicting a slower upper level pattern evolution.

Drying trend still expected Tuesday with mainly dry wx into the
second half of next week. Another push of seasonably colder air
appears poised to arrive by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A narrow wedge of high pressure sits over central PA in the
predawn hours Saturday, as two storm systems approach the area.
The first system is characterized by a potent shortwave trough
over the Great Lakes, with a narrow area of rain showers ahead
of a cold/occluded front. This feature will bring increasing
clouds to BFD and a chance for light rain after 10z, but cloud
bases are likely to remain in the VFR range. The second system
is a coastal storm developing off the Southeast Coast. As this
system drifts north over the next couple days, East to Northeast
flow will increase, resulting in increasing low level humidity
and a trend towards lower ceilings. By 10-12z today, stratus is
likely to develop near MDT and LNS, most likely with bases just
above 3000 ft, but can`t rule out some MVFR cigs during this
timeframe. The chance for MVFR cigs increases closer to 15z
across the lower Susq.

In the meantime, the wedge of high pressure overhead is allowing
for another night of effective radiative cooling, and the
development of patchy valley fog. The chance of vsby
restrictions at any of the TAF sites this morning is generally
less than 30 pct, but perhaps slightly higher at AOO.

Much of today will be dry, with scattered showers initially
limited to the far northwest and southeast portions of the area.
By 20z Sat - 00z Sun, the upper level shortwave approaching
from the NW will begin to tap into increasing low level moisture
associated with the coastal storm, likely leading to an
increase in coverage of rain over central PA during the
overnight hours (00z-12z Sun). Along with the increase in
rainfall coverage, we expect to see deteriorating cigs and vsby
with widespread restrictions. By 06z Sun, the chance for IFR
conditions approaches 30-40% for most airfields except BFD and
JST where the chance is closer to 60%.

Low level wind shear from a strengthening east-southeasterly
low level jet will develop late Sat night across the Susq
Valley and points east.

Outlook...

Sun...Rain mainly for central and eastern airfields. Widespread
IFR Cigs and MVFR VSBYS with areas of LIFR possible. Some
improvement late possible in the NW. NE wind gusts of 20-30 kts
possible in the southeast.

Mon...Still breezy in NE flow with rain chances continuing
across the east.

Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.

Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen