607
FXUS61 KCTP 020725
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
225 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and mild weather will continue until late Wednesday or
Wednesday night when we`ll likely see some rain showers followed
by slightly cooler weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and mild weather will continue until late
Wednesday or Wednesday night when we`ll likely see some rain
showers followed by slightly cooler weather.

Latest satellite images, observations and high res HREF
guidance all indicate a continuation of light southeast to south
wind overnight along with variable amounts of mid and high
clouds.

Observed 19Z temps are within a few deg F either side of their
fcst maxes and highs in our CWA will be in the upper 50s over
the higher terrain north of I-80 and low to mid 60s in the
Central and Southern Valleys.

There is a trend toward increasing areal coverage of the clouds
across the CWA overnight and Monday with cloud bases lowering at
least several KFT across the SW half to two thirds of the
state, with notably higher cloud bases (solidly in the Altocu
range) across the Susq Valley and points east on Monday.

A sprinkle isn`t out of the question over the N Monday night -
much like the very small and brief shower they had two nights
ago. We`ll keep the forecast at 0 PoP since there is no risk of
0.01" accumulating. That isn`t great news for northern PA where
BFD only accumulated 0.85" through all of Oct, and is currently
on a run of 14 straight days without measurable (0.01") rain.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first
half of the week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and keeping
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much of
week. Highs in the lower 70s are in store for all but the higher
elevations on Wed.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the second half of
the week. Very late Wed or Wed night is the earliest anyone
will see precip as a complex system develops over the middle of
the country. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the
evolution of the upper air pattern and phasing of energy aloft
that will decide the development and progression of this system.
The more weighted/favored (per WPC) ECMWF solution yields only
a brief 12-18hr window of precip as the cold front moves through
(longer in the eastern half of the CWA than over the west) Wed
night and Thurs. Cold air under a sharp trough could make the
first part of the weekend a little chilly and damp with
instability showers.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An area of cirrus clouds between FL180-FL250 will move across
the region from west to east overnight. Across the eastern
areas, clear skies will allow temperatures to fall and may help
develop VCFG in spots but coverage should be less than 20% and
mainly along river valleys. Elsewhere, the clouds over the west
are helping to moderate temperatures early and should limit the
development of any FG.

The daylight hours will follow the same pattern as the past 16
days. Dry conditions with VFR and light winds.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday
and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more
likely in showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Bauco
AVIATION...Tyburski