002
FXUS61 KCTP 291903
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
303 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* minor modification to afternoon high temps for Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and breezy (Windy Sat morning across the NE portion of
the CWA with gusts of around 40 mph) into the last weekend of
May

2) Pleasant, rain-free conditions to start June

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
Cool and breezy (Windy Sat morning across the NE portion of
the CWA with gusts of around 40 mph) into the last weekend of
May

Several Deg C of warming from the west around the 850 mb level
and vertical mixing up through that level helped to negate
the development of even flat cu across the CWA today. This is in
sharp contrast to the several deg C of cool advection from the
north at that same level and thick stratocu coverage we had
during the morning and midday hours Thursday.

The rest of today will be sunny with low humidity and near-
normal temperatures in the 70s. A westerly breeze will gust
20-25 mph at times during the afternoon.

A cold front drops southward from eastern Canada this evening
and moves through the region late tonight with a sharp wind
shift to the north, delivering a shot of cooler air to start
the last weekend of May.

Highs on Saturday will be -6 to -10F below climo in most places
with highs in the 60s...to low 70s in some of the Scent Valleys.

Wind gusts from the North-Northwest in the 30-40 mph range are
fcst over the eastern portion of the area early Saturday in
conjunction with deep sfc low along the New England coast.

Saturday night will feature decreasing clouds and wind which
sets up a pretty chilly overnight period by end of May
standards. We would not rule out some patchy frost in the
northern tier with the usual cold spots likely printing lows in
the upper 30s early Sunday morning.

-------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2:
Pleasant, rain-free conditions to start June

Persistent, high-amplitude omega block will occur over the
Central U.S. and Scent Canada through at least the middle of
next week with several rounds of of Canadian air intrusions from
Quebec/Ontario promoting an extended stretch of rain-free (dry)
weather over the next 7 days.

WPC QPF is essentially 0.00" across all of CPA through 12Z
Friday June 5th. The pleasant and refreshing weather next week
is fcst to be replaced by warmer, more summerlike conditions by
the first weekend of June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR expected across all sites for the rest of today and tonight.
Sky conditions will be generally SKC into this evening with
sct-bkn alto cu clouds (based between 070-090) drifting south
from New York State tonight. As this area of warm advection
cloud cover moves in, so will a belt of moderately strong WNW
low level flow of 35-40kt and LLWS for 5-7 hour period during
the middle of the night.

The leading edge of a secondary push of cooler air from the
north approaches the region tonight. The frontal boundary
associated with this cooler air pushes through between 04-08Z
Sat and has little to no meaningful moisture and no restriction
to CIG or VSBY is expected. Overall, a nice stretch of good VFR
conditions is expected through the weekend.

Winds will take on a more North to NNW component as the frontal
boundary passes towards the end of the current TAF period with
breezy conditions likely. Gustiest conditions will be present at
the eastern TAF sites Sat morning with gusts of 30-35kts
possible.


Outlook...

Sat-Mon...VFR with no significant weather expected.

Tue...Watching for isolated shower activity, restrictions
possible

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Lambert