879
FXUS61 KCTP 111023
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
523 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Lake-effect and upslope snow showers continue this Veteran`s
  Day as blustery winds keep wind chills near or below freezing
* Gusty winds in the Laurels and lake effect rain/snow showers
  across the northern tier will continue Wednesday and Thursday
* Building high pressure into the weekend will contribute to
  drier conditions and a gradual warm up to near average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning, a near-record cold blob of air aloft is
centered over Virginia as a lobe of the Polar Vortex rotates
through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, record cold
temperatures extend from Tennessee to Florida where Freeze
Warnings are in effect. Closer to home, temperatures at daybreak
will range from the upper teens across the typical cool spots to
near 30 toward Harrisburg. Gusty westerly winds are making it
feel like the single digits or teens across much of the area -
so bundle up if you have to head out this morning.

Northwest flow in the wake of a strong low that tracked across
the Great Lakes will continue to bring lake effect/upslope snow
showers to Central PA today. No changes to the Lake Effect Snow
Warning/Winter Weather Advisories. Snow showers with a Lake
Huron connection oriented NW to SE will slowly shift to a more W
to E alignment today as winds turn counter clockwise thanks to
the retreating low pressure center. With such cold temperatures
aloft, strong snow showers/squalls will remain possible through
the day and we could even see a few showers make it into
southeast PA.

The Snow Squall Parameter lights up impressively along and north of
I-80 this afternoon, so scattered to numerous squalls seem like
a good bet. As is typical in this westerly flow regime in the
cold season, cloudy skies will persist along/west/north of I-99
& I-80 while downsloping east of the Allegheny Front should
support some breaks in the clouds farther southeast. Air
temperatures increasing to above freezing this afternoon across
southeast PA will help mitigate the risk for flash freeze
conditions there, but the risk will be maximized along and north
of I-80. Motorists should delay travel or exit the highway when
a snow squall warning is issued.

With high pressure over the southeast US and the retreating low
over New England, a tightening pressure gradient will support
gusty winds this afternoon, especially east of the tallest
ridges in the Alleghenies. A Wind Advisory is in effect from
7AM to 3PM from Somerset and Bedford Counties up the spine of
the Alleghenies to Clearfield and Northern Centre. Here we
expect gusts to 45 or 50mph, which could knock down some
branches or trees and make it difficult for high-profile
vehicles.

Southwest winds and a quick upper level disturbance bringing
clouds overhead tonight mean slightly milder temperatures. We`ll
see precipitation continue north of I-80 with perhaps a bit
more rain mixing in with snow. A coating to a half inch of
additional snow is possible in the typical higher elevations
west of the Allegheny Front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday, though just a bit warmer. A
tight pressure gradient will allow for winds gusts in the 30 to
35 mph range Wednesday, with some guidance suggesting the
potential for gusts over the Laurel Highlands to approach 40 to
45 mph. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed, though perhaps
not extending as far north.

Winds aloft will be more zonal, helping steer lake effect
showers (rain/snow mix) mainly north of I-80 on Wednesday. Warm
advection will keep temperatures trending up, with highs ranging
from the middle 30s in the northern tier to low 50s in the
southeast. Gusty winds will still pack a punch, but won`t feel
quite as chilling when the temperatures are noticeably warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper-level troughing will remain in place through the end of
the week, keeping the chance for rain and snow showers in the
forecast each day through Thursday, especially over northwest
PA. Clouds will persist in the northwest, while a mix of sun and
clouds is more of the norm in the southeast.

The December-like cold airmass is forecast to retreat later in
the week, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal
averages. High pressure looks build in from the southwest Friday
into early Sunday, which should keep us mainly dry into the
beginning of the weekend.

Another northern stream upper shortwave traversing the Northern
Plains will reach the Great Lakes early in the weekend and
support a low pressure/frontal system that will move across PA
Sunday into next Monday. At this point, this system appears to
be not as strong or as cold as our current one, so any precip
looks to be mainly in the form of rain/rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low-level flow will gain more of a westerly component overnight
and will direct heavy lake effect snow bands into Central PA.
Several bands of lake effect snow have already caused reductions
in visibility over central PA. UNV has dropped to less than 2
miles as a consistent band remains over that terminal. Within
the next couple of hours more upslope snow showers at JST and
AOO are anticipated.

Expect IFR/LIFR conditions at BFD for much of the night, while
JST likely remains MVFR with brief periods of IFR possible. Most
guidance indicates the potential for some of the heavier
snowbands to make it all the way down to UNV and IPT by early
morning. MDT and LNS will likely remain VFR through the TAF
period, though there is around a 15 percent chance of a few snow
showers making it that far southeast. Snow lifts north of JST
and AOO by mid- morning, but snow will continue at BFD into the
afternoon.

Strong winds a few thousand feet above the surface should mix
down fairly easily tonight and during the day on Tuesday, with
gusts of 25 to 35 knots expected at all TAF sites. VFR
conditions may briefly return area-wide late in the TAF period
with just a few lingering snow showers near BFD. Snow chances
increase again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Outlook...
Wed-Thu...Rain and snow showers over northwest PA along with
gusty winds.

Fri...Improvement expected, with winds diminishing and
lingering -SHSN across NW PA diminishing as well.

Sat...Dry, generally VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ005-010.
Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ017-018-024-
025-033-034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen