206
FXUS61 KCTP 171853
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Keeping an eye on rain amounts/intensity in the SW

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Numerous showers ahead of a cold front will die off as we
lose the heating of the sun.

2) An unsettled but not particularly wet period is expected mid
to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers ahead of a cold front will die
off as we lose the heating of the sun.

The cold front is advancing through northern PA showing up as
thin line of shallow convectionm at 3 PM. The air behind the
front is not all that dry, but enough of a change should take
place that those in nrn PA should notice tonight and Tuesday.
The immediate showers and a couple of thunderstorms out ahead
of the front in the 68-71F dewpoint airmass seem to be moving
along consistently/quickly. But, some training is starting to
occur. We`ll have to keep an eye on the radar and radar/gauge
estimates to exceed FFG. But, thus far, the heaviest rates do
not get to that level of worry. Not thinking of a flood watch at
this point with the threat sub-concerning. The stronger forcing
will linger over the NE counties early this evening, but most of
this convection will die off around sunset.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: An unsettled but not particularly wet period is
expected mid to late week.

After a dry 36 hrs tonight thru Wed AM, a short wave trough
rotating around the base of the deep upper low over Hudson &
James Bays. It will be the next help to lift and destabilize the
air over PA. Expect some showers to impinge upon Warren Co in
the aftn on Wed and spread along the NY border. Some of them
could advance another county to the south before daylight wanes
and they die off. Precip chcs Wed night and Thurs AM now look a
little lower than previous forecasts. But, isolated showers are
still possible then. Heights do dip for real on Thursday/night
and will probably develop a weak low pressure system to our
south. That low will push east to the sea Friday. Some light to
moderate rain should overrun the boundary to our south and make
the southern half of the CWA wet - but not too wet - on Thurs
night and early Friday. Model agreement lowers for the weekend,
clouding the crystal ball. PoPs end up at 40-50% Sat and Sun
without confidence in the forecast being either wet or dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers are moving across PA as of 18Z this afternoon.
As these move southeast, the sites most likely to see effects
from this activity are JST, AOO, and IPT. Thunder is likely to accompany
the strongest cores, but will remain spotty, said cores have
IFR visibility potential. The scattered nature of these storms
means exact impacts to sites such as UNV, MDT, and LNS are more
uncertain this afternoon with confidence < 30% of impacts to any
one site. Regardless, these sites may need to be watched for a
quick amendment if they cross paths with a stronger core of
precipitation. VFR otherwise into the night.

As a cold front sweeps through the state, drying air will shunt
precipitation off to the south overnight and into Tuesday.
Lingering moisture and clearing skies are likely to lead to
visibility restrictions and low cloud ceilings across most sites
overnight and into early Tuesday morning. MDT and LNS look to
be the least impacted from these restrictions, although some
visibility drops are possible and may depend on how much rain
falls this afternoon. Once this activity burns away with the sun
rising, a dry, less cloudy postfrontal environment follows with
VFR categories.

Outlook...

Wed... VFR conditions with restrictions from afternoon SHRA/TSRA
possible in the northwest

Thu... Afternoon SHRA/TSRA with brief restrictions possible.
Otherwise, VFR conditions.

Fri...Chance of SHRA across the south, restrictions possible,
otherwise dry.

Sat...Chance of SHRA statewide, restrictions possible

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambrech