284
FXUS61 KCTP 310815
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
415 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints/RHs today and Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early
November before coming to an end by late next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues
into early November before coming to an end by late next week

Another very pleasant and comfortable weekend to close out
October (Halloween) and start November (ending daylight saving
time).

Major message is that the high pressure overhead will not yield
to anything for several more days. It deflects one system to our
north early in the week before somethings stronger can gather in
the MS Valley and slide slowly this way.

Minor messages include:

 Morning fog and lower clouds should burn away after a couple
of hours today with high clouds for the rest of the day. The
temps will be down significantly (down 10-12F) from Fri in the
SE, but the NW will benefit from warm advection and add 3-7F.

 Dewpoints should get into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and
drop RH into the 30s almost everywhere. There is a small
concern for a dewpoint bomb occurring today with very dry air
lurking just 2-4kft up. Drastically lower dewpoints would be
more- likely over the central mountains and Allegheny Plateau
than elsewhere today. However, thankfully, the wind speed is
nowhere near a level where we would need to consider a Red Flag
Warning for fire weather concerns. The wind yesterday caused
more of a concern. With many days of dry weather (lack of
moisture and no precip) in store, the fire weather threat will
continue to be at the top of the list of weather concerns to
evaluate.

 Temps will be several degrees above normal during the daytimes
with maxes 10-15F above normal for days 3-7 or longer. Morning
lows will rise more-gradually, but still reach 15-20F above
normal for Thurs-Fri. We could set a record maxi-min or two.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR cigs in lingering stratocu near the NY border and valley
fog formation could result in brief sub-VFR restrictions early
this morning; otherwise VFR should prevail for the rest of today
and through the balance of the weekend.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR.

Wed-Fri...Periods of rain and sub-VFR becoming more likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl