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FXUS61 KCTP 312318
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
718 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early
November before coming to an end by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues
into early November before coming to an end by late next week

Another day of mainly clear skies with light winds today as high
pressure remains in place across the region. Most locations
will see high temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper
50s, though parts of south-central PA should reach the low 60s.
With model soundings showing a layer of dry air above a weak
inversion, expect dew points to drop somewhat this afternoon.
The magnitude of the drop remains uncertain, but we should see
RH values fall into the 35 to 45 percent range.

Dry weather continues for Sunday though mid and high clouds will
be on the increase thanks to an area of warm advection
associated with a weak shortwave approaching from the west.
Moisture appears to be very limited with this disturbance as it
moves through on Monday, so we will continue to show a dry
forecast. Upper level ridging builds back into the region for
the first half of the week, helping to prolong our dry stretch
and keeping high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
much of the coming week.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the end of the week
as a complex system develops over the middle of the country.
There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of
the upper air pattern that will lead to the development of this
system, but confidence continues to increase in our dry streak
coming to and end by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are virtually certain through 00Z Monday, with
the only chance for sub-VFR conditions coming in the 09-13Z
Sunday timeframe across our eastern terminals (IPT/MDT/LNS). At
this time, restrictions continue to be most likely in the form
of fog/low stratus given some potential for breaks in the high-
level cloud deck and/or slower eastward progression of the cloud
deck. HREF ensemble probabilities continue to outline highest
chances (~20-30%) at IPT/LNS, with GLAMP also outlining ~10-20%
probabilities of this scenario unfolding overnight. The main
concern is that fog would have to contend with some low-level
dry air based on RAP model soundings. Based on this, have
continued to hold stout with VCFG mentions with lower-level
scattered cloud decks at IPT in the timeframe where restrictions
will be possible.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday
and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more
likely in showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Bauco
DISCUSSION...Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty