748
FXUS61 KCTP 170846
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
346 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Blustery with lake effect snow bands lasting into the late
  afternoon or evening
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday followed by a slightly milder
  trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Lake SHSN have now consolidated into one larger bands and a few
small ones, as expected. The long fetch from the bigger upper
lakes (including Lake Nipigon which is upstream of LS) is
directed right into Central PA. So, the forecast is on track.
Webcams (the few) across the northwestern mountains show
accumulations and drifting. Road temps on I-80 are just now
dipping to/below freezing. Slowed travel is expected as the
gusty wind continues. These bands are not going away quickly
today as conditions remain relatively unchanged this afternoon.
Later in the aftn the SHSN will start lift a little to the north
into wrn NY with a subtle shift to the wind. The subsidence
inversion will also be lowering somewhat, perhaps down to 5kft
or less. Some bands will linger into the evening, but any light
accumulations from those would be confined to far northern PA.

We have thought hard about extending the warnings and advisories
into the late aftn or even through 00Z. One knock against that
is that temps (esp road temps) will get back above freezing as
the sun breaks through the clouds occasionally. So, melting
may keep road problems from being widespread during the warmest
time of day. Accums would be just on the colder surfaces and
where the snow has already accumulated. We`ll continue to
evaluate the need to extend the WWAs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The SHSN get less numerous and less intense after sunset.
After midnight, a patch of lift over a warm front will race
across the Midwest. It looks much like a Clipper, with the
compact shortwave trough caught in fast zonal flow. It`s
probably too warm to use that phrase. The precip may reach the
Laurels by 9-10 AM. Temp profiles at that time look marginal for
snow. There could be a pocket or two of ZR stuck in the
Laurels, but most of the sfc temps will be AOA freezing by the
time the precip reaches. Any snow accums will be on the higher
elevations (>2000ft). GFS and NAM differ on the northern extent
of the precip shield. NAM and it`s cousins keep it suppressed to
the south of the Turnpike for the most part. So, the NBM PoPs
may end up being too high for the central (and northern)
mountains. We`ll see if this trend continues. QPF at this point
is a third of an inch along the MD border. The wind will become
lighter later tonight and Tuesday morning. The rain will slide
to the east Tues night. Tuesday will be as chilly as Monday with
maxes in the u30s-m40s. Temps dip back into the 20s for the
north and 30s for the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip odds
trend higher into the end of next week. Most guidance shows
this system tracking to our west, which would result in an all
rain scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue to affect BFD and perhaps
UNV through this morning, and perhaps even through the early
afternoon hours as a well-aligned flow from 300-310 deg persists
in the lowest 7 kft of the atmosphere.

Periods of IFR or LIFR visibilities (and mainly MVFR ceilings)
will prevail at BFD during this period. The snow band could also bring restrictions to UNV, with MVFR
as the most likely category.

All other TAF sites stay mainly VFR through the 06Z 24 hour TAF
period.

If the snow band can maintain its structure far enough southeast,
it could bring some rain or snow to KMDT, though any
restrictions should be very brief (if at all).

Gusty winds will slacken somewhat this morning, generally
blowing out of the northwest at 15 to 25kts. A bump up in
winds with gusts peaking in the 30s (MPH) as vertical mixing
rebounds to between 3-4 kft AGL and the axis of a 125 kt upper
level jet shifts slowly north across the Commonwealth.

Winds will finally weaken late tonight through Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tues...Restrictions likely in rain and snow.

Wed-Thu...Isolated showers, restrictions likely from southeast
flow/low clouds.

Fri...Widespread rain expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ004-005-010.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ006-011-017.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff