577
FXUS61 KCTP 021754
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
154 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Isolated showers today mainly in the mountains.
* The next widespread chance for showers comes Thursday with a
  cold front.
* More showers and storms are possible on Saturday with strong
  cold front.
* Dry and cooler weather to start the next week off.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong early September sun has resulted in more TCU along the
ridge lines today, compared to Labor Day. Isolated showers
will be possible until early evening. Still a rather strong
inversion around 10,000 feet to limit shower formation. Will
adjust the fcst as needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Loss of daytime heating should help diminish any tall cu and end
the chance for a --SHRA early this evening. Dewpoints have come
up since yesterday, so some patchy fog could form, but it has
been rather dry since 8/1.

500 mb heights rise on Wed. Thus less instability, which
should decrease the chance for an isolated shower on Wed.

The light sfc wind should finally turn southerly on Wed. Not
looking at dewpoints as low as the other day, so fire weather
not really a concern. Temperatures near normal for early Sept.

The southerly flow begins to increase on Wed night as the sfc
pres gradient tightens in advance of the cold front approaching
from the west. The moisture plume at our latitude seems to stay
near to the front and dewpoints don`t rise above 60F over
Central PA (even over western PA) until after 12Z Thu. Thus
POPS for PoPs for Wed night are low, highest being toward the
far west late.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main chance for any showers and storms will be on Thursday.
Best dynamics lift northeast of the area, and dewpoints not
real high, better west of the mtns, thus QPF a bit lower now.

Marginal from SPC, main issue is gusty winds.

Secondary cold front for Saturday will usher in much colder
temperatures again by later in the weekend.

Next chance of showers after this is toward next Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect mainly VFR conditions into Wednesday.

Isolated showers possible this aft. Too isolated so far to
put in the TAFS.

Dewpoints higher than yesterday, but fog and low clouds for
tonight still limited. I did put some in at UNV, as the wind
is fcst to be from the NE.

Expect less chance of a shower on Wed.

More in the way of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm on
Thursday, as a cold front moves across the area.

Outlook...

Wed...Mainly VFR. Isolated SHRA possible in the late afternoon
mainly south and west of JST.

Thu...Widespread SHRA/TSRA ahead of a cold front.

Fri...Showers lingering, mainly across the east.

Sat...Chance of SHRA with TSRA possible.

Sun...Clearing, breezy.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Dangelo/Martin