380
FXUS61 KCTP 240630
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
230 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers/isolated t-storm likely near and southwest of US-322
this afternoon

2) Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of April with
periods of rain tapering off early Sunday

3) More seasonable end to what has been one of the warmest
April`s on record

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers/t-storm likely near and southwest of
US-322 this afternoon

HREF/RRFS show rain showers or an isolated t-storm developing
this afternoon within llvl convergence zone (located near or
just to the SW of US-322) associated with a backdoor cold front.
Any t-storm is expected to be non severe given weak instability
and shear profiles. A couple of slow moving downpours are
possible as PW values gradually tick higher through the evening
to ~ 1 inch. Hires models signal a relative decrease in shower
coverage into tonight with max POPS over the northern and
western periphery of the CWA by 12Z Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of
April with periods of rain tapering off early Sunday

Weak area of low pressure slides east-southeastward from the
thumb of lower MI to the southern Delmarva/VA Tidewater region
Saturday. Passage of upper level trough and moist east/southeast
llvl flow will help support periods of rain into Saturday night
with total QPF amounts generally in the 0.25-0.75" range. CAD
pattern will result in a 24hr maxT change on the order of 15 to
20 degrees to the downside vs. Friday. Rainfall will be of the
beneficial variety particularly across the far south central and
southeastern zones were moderate /D1/ to severe /D2/ drought
conditions exist. Rain ends in time to salvage the second half
of the last weekend of April 2026. High pressure building in
Sunday night could introduce a frost risk in some parts of the
area early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3: More seasonable end to what has been one of the
warmest April`s on record

Most sites are tracking top 5-10 warmest April-to-date through
the 23rd. The much above normal warmth is expected to fizzle
out through month-end as the pattern shifts cooler on the
margin with more seasonable days and nights near or slightly
below the historical average heading into May.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is likely to prevail through 00Z Saturday with flight
restrictions limited to SHRA across Central PA tomorrow morning
& afternoon.

Clouds will increase between 02Z-07Z Friday as a shortwave
approaches from the northwest, with conditions remaining dry
through the night. An initial round of scattered showers is
expected between 12Z-17Z Friday along a narrow NNW/SSE boundary
over Central PA (closest to KBFD/KIPT/KUNV), where milder/moist
air from the southwest meets & rises over cooler/drier air from
the northeast. Most of these showers will move across the drier
side of this boundary, with VFR favored for these showers given
low-level dry air (T/Td spreads around 10 degrees C).

A second round of scattered showers will develop across this
boundary in the afternoon (18Z-24Z), driven by instability
developing on the mild/moist side (HREF mean SBCAPE around 500
J/kg). Visibility restrictions will be more likely with these
showers given the diurnally driven instability in place, with
brief gusty winds also possible given the inverted-V profile in
place (primarily KJST/KAOO/KUNV). For our other sites, spottier
shower coverage is expected due to greater distance from the
frontal boundary & less moisture being available on the drier
side, though visibility restrictions to 5-6SM are possible.
Moreover, a few thundershowers may develop given the
instability, though the low-topped nature of these showers (HRRR
modeled cloud top temperatures warmer than
-30 degrees C) precludes TSRA mentions at this time.


Outlook...

Sat-Sun..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions.

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings
lower and showers move in.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Teare