610
FXUS61 KCTP 230911
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
411 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Patchy fog tonight will give way to increasing clouds and a
  few snow showers in the northern tier before sunrise
* Breezy Sunday with a couple rain/snow showers in northern PA
* Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday-Wednesday;
  turning decidedly brisk and colder with gusty winds and lake
  effect snow Thanksgiving Day through Black Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak warm air advection from the west was supporting a
progressive north/south band of snow showers moving across the
Northern and Central Mtns of PA early this morning. QPF will be
just a few hundredths of an inch at most and a few spots on the
higher terrain may see a light dusting of snow.

The wedge of warmer llvl air across the Ohio Valley and Lower
Great Lakes will move across PA during the late morning across
Western 1/2 of the CWA and early afternoon in the east). A cold
front following this briefly milder air will push across the
Commonwealth this afternoon with little if any fanfare in the
precip dept. However, the presence of the thermally direct,
descending, left rear quadrant of a 120 kt upper level jet
will negate anything more than a sprinkle or flurry today.
Partial clearing is possible across the Central Mtns and
Susquehanna Valley for the mid to later afternoon.

Expect a rather gusty, westerly breeze this afternoon in the
25-35+ mph range. A couple of passing rain or snow showers are
also possible particularly near and to the north of Interstate
80.

Plenty of clouds will be common over the Alleghenies with
brighter spots in the lower Susquehanna Valley thanks to
downsloping. The brisk wind will make it feel like daytime max
temps are in the 30-45F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in for tonight, ending rain/snow showers
in the north and relaxing the gusty wind. Good travel conditions
are expected to start Thanksgiving week with fair and tranquil
weather on Monday. Clouds begin to increase Monday night as a
milder warm advection pattern quickly shifts downstream from
Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mild trend continues through midweek with max temps peaking on
Wednesday in the 50-60F range or +10-15 degrees above the
historical average for late November.

Periods of rain are expected to move over the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Depending on how fast precip can advance into the
retreating cold sector early Tuesday, there is a narrow window
for some mixed precip on the front-end, but not wintry impacts
expected as of now.

Well-defined cold front will plow through the Appalachians later
Wednesday through Wednesday night. Blustery post-frontal flow is
expected to deliver much colder temperatures by Thanksgiving.
This pattern shift and below normal temperatures will trigger
lake effect snow - initially targeting the LE shoreline into SW
NY before pivoting into the NW PA snowbelts late in the week.
Several inches of snow accumulation and significant travel
disruptions are possible Thu-Sat across the NW mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly clear skies with a few high clouds streaming in from the
west will characterize the beginning of this evening. Expect
patchy fog to form overnight as winds go calm and skies clear
out, though confidence on restrictions is low. Model soundings
indicate that the best potential for any vsby restrictions will
be at MDT and LNS.

High and mid clouds increase overnight ahead of a low pressure
system tracking well to our north. A warm front associated with
this system may bring a few snow showers to BFD prior to
sunrise, but the better chance for precip appears to be along
and behind the cold front which will move through during the
late morning/early afternoon. Winds will be gusty on Sunday
afternoon, particularly west of UNV. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots
appear likely, with a few gusts as high as 35 knots possible at
JST and AOO.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow
after sunset.

Thu...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen