161
FXUS61 KCTP 130535
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1235 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Breezy with rain/snow showers lingering across parts of
  western and northern Pennsylvania through Thursday
* Mainly dry Friday; shot of rain to start the weekend before
  transitioning to snow showers Sunday into Monday
* Temperatures gradually moderate into the weekend before
  trending colder with gusty winds returning Sunday-Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy tonight with light rain/snow
showers lingering across the northern tier. Minor accumulations
of generally 0.5" or less are expected through 12Z Thu in the NW
mtns. Lows will be modulated by the westerly breeze and cloud
cover extending downwind of Lake Erie holding temps in the
30-40F range. With G4 or greater severe geomagnetic solar storm
forecast by SWPC, the best Aurora viewing will likely be with
any clearing to the southeast of the Allegheny Front across the
southeastern half of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Upper-level trough gradually shifts to the northeast through the
end of the week. Persistent NW flow will maintain occasional
rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie across parts of
north central PA through Thursday. High pressure sliding
eastward will lower inversion heights and eventually shut off
the lake effect by Friday.

Clouds will be prevalent in the NW Alleghenies while more peaks
of sun will be found farther to the southeast into the LSV.
Thursday will remain breezy, but winds will gradually trend
lower on Friday. Max temps trend warmer by a couple of degrees
through late week with highs in the low 40s-50s on Friday (near
to slightly below mid November climo).

Best odds for dry wx/no precip window looks like 12Z Friday to
18Z Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northern stream upper trough and attendant a sfc low/frontal
system will dive southeast across the Great Lakes and Northeast
this weekend, leading to a period of rain later Saturday into
Saturday night. Can`t rule out a few thunderstorms primarily
over western PA in a warm sector airmass likely characterized by
limited CAPE and strong shear.

Breezy to windy conditions will accompany the passage of the
frontal system with colder air poised to return on Sunday. The
gusty NW flow should send lake enhanced snow showers/bands back
into NW PA to close out the weekend and start next week.

The next system is fcst to eject eastward across the north
central Plains and quickly spread precip downstream through the
Ohio Valley early next week. Aside from the operational GFS,
there is a reasonable consensus for precip to reach the area by
Tuesday. Thermal profiles appear to be supportive of potential
mixed ptypes on the front-end of precip depending on speed/time
of arrival.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridging will slowly build in tonight and Thurs. Lake
effect clouds will linger into Thursday, though, before
diminishing and lifting N of PA. Clouds are mainly VFR except
BFD where IFR could persist throughout the night. Some clearing
of clouds across the southwest will ensue shortly, and leave
MDT/LNS without much if any cloud cover for the second half of
the night. The sfc high to our SW doesn`t advance much tonight
or Thurs. Therefore, while the wind gets less gusty tonight due
to lack of daytime mixing, they will pick up again 13-14Z and
some gusts could touch the 30KT mark, mainly in the southern
terminals.

Clouds will gradually lift and diminish Thursday afternoon
leaving VFR conditions at all terminals. Dry air will take over
and no precipitation is expected for PA except for a slight
chance of a light lake effect snow shower in the northwest
mountains.

Outlook...
Fri...Mainly VFR. Lighter wind.

Sat...WFROPA, but mainly dry and VFR. LLWS poss.

Sat PM/Sun...CFROPA. SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Breezy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Breezy.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Dangelo/Bowen