757
FXUS61 KCTP 191841
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
141 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday
*Occasional rain Friday and Friday night precedes a dry and
seasonably mild back half/end to the weekend
*Mild weather continues early next week before a significant
 cold pattern shift likely by the end of Thanksgiving week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Late morning update.

Lots of sun along the NY border at the current time, but low
clouds and a hazy fog across much of the rest of the area. No
good way to move it out very fast.

Heaviest snow last night around the State College area, but
most of it already melted.

Earlier discussion below.

Band of rain/snow will pivot eastward across CPA early this
morning. Thermal profiles have sufficiently cooled via wet bulb
effects to produce steady light to moderate snow either side of
the I-80 corridor with webcams indicating a slushy accumulation
on roadways. Snow amounts may exceed 1" on grassy/non-paved and
elevated surfaces particularly over the higher terrain of the
interior central mtns into the Coal region. SPS was issued to
account for potential travel impacts on slick/slushy roads
through the predawn and early morning commute.

Some areas of fog/mist/dz/fzdz could last into mid morning over
the Laurel Highlands. Precip ends/exits the LSV shortly after
12Z with partly to mostly cloudy conditions expected for the
rest of today through tonight. The cloud cover may reduce/prop-
up max/min temps by a few degrees with day/nighttime readings
slightly below/above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will provide mainly dry weather for most of
Thursday, but lingering low level moisture will keep clouds in
place for most of CPA. We would not rule out some pockets of
light rain or drizzle/fog across the Laurel Highlands later in
the day. Models show an increasing chance for light rain
spreading west to east Thursday night through Friday night.
Occasional rain signal likely peaks Friday night into early
Saturday morning based on blended model QPF followed by a north
to south drying trend into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Odds for rain decrease from north to south on Saturday with
high confidence in a dry end to the weekend (Saturday night
through Sunday). Seasonably mild conditions continue through
early next week with timing of next round of rain still
uncertain (probably sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday window).
The key message for next week will be the significant pattern
shift to colder weather projected to unfold after Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak sfc ridging and light winds in the lowest several KFT AGL
will allow low clouds (IFR to LIFR) and IFR-MVFR vsbys to
linger across the southern half of the airspace this afternoon
while a sharp change to mainly VFR occurs across the northern
mtns/BFD.

Some gradual improvement in flying conditions will develop
farther south of Interstate 80 this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR across the
northern half of PA, but some lingering restrictions likely
across the southern PA airfields (KJST/KAOO/KMDT and KLNS) due
to lower clouds as temps cool off this evening.

Friday through early Saturday...Rain and associated
restrictions likely.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Martin
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Martin
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner