170
FXUS61 KCTP 162112
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
412 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow bands lasting into
  Monday; snowy road conditions/hazardous travel possible in
  blowing/drifting snow
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday followed by a slightly milder
  trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 4 PM, 2m temps have just fallen to 32F at BFD, but
generally remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s along the I-80
corridor and points south. It is also quite dry across the south
with dewpoints in the teens and low 20s. The combined effect of
the warm and dry air is little if any snow laying on the ground
this afternoon - and more rain than snow falling across the
southern tier and Lower Susq Valley. Snow will become the
predominant ptype as temps cool several degrees between now and
sunset. Some of the heavier snow showers may result in a
dusting of snow on the colder parts of I-80 (Clearfield County),
the northwest mountains, and the Laurels as early as 5 PM.

The character of the snow showers is expected to transition from
cellular to more of the typical streamer band lake effect
appearance with the loss of daytime heating and increasing
boundary layer RH, resulting in a greater likelihood of
accumulating snowfall over northwest PA. A stripe of 5 to 8
inches of snow is expected somewhere in the area covered by the
Lake Effect Snow Warning (perhaps not county-wide averages, as
lake effect bands are typically more narrow), while areas
covered by the Winter Weather Advisory should see snowfall in
the 2 to 5 inch range.

High res guidance continues to show the potential for some of
these bands/squalls to reach pretty far inland overnight,
potentially even extending into the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
These bands may cause rapid changes in visibility and quick
accumulations on roadways, leading to hazardous travel
conditions.

The other concern today is strong winds. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph
will be likely through the rest of the afternoon along with a
few gusts as high as 55 mph as we continue to tap into 50 knot
winds at the top of the mixed layer. These winds could blow
around any unsecured objects and may result in scattered power
outages. Wind stay strong overnight, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph
likely. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire CWA
through midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Snow showers gradually decrease in coverage through the day on
Monday as inversion heights begin to fall, though it likely
takes most of the day for snow to come to an end across the
northern tier. High temperatures will range from the low 30s to
the mid 40s. Winds will remain gusty, though likely not as
strong as on Sunday, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Snow showers and gusty winds taper off Monday night as high
pressure briefly builds into the region. Models show the next
system for early next week ejecting out of the central Plains
(NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact southern stream
shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward through the Ohio
Valley toward the DelmarVA. The majority of the ensemble
guidance continues to show the bulk of the precip with this
system remaining to our south, though there is the potential for
some mixed precip to move through the southern half of
Pennsylvania.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip odds
trend higher into the end of next week. Most guidance shows this
system tracking to our west, which would result in an all rain
scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main issue this afternoon and into Monday will be gusty winds
from the northwest. Wind gusts this afternoon to around 50 mph.

Winds on Monday will be not quite as strong.

Other issue will be bands of lake effect snow showers off the
Great Lakes into BFD, and perhaps JST, AOO, and UNV at times.
Less likely to the east and south at IPT. Even less likely at
MDT and LNS.

The snow intensity could increase briefly around sunrise on
Monday, as the cold air deepens, and before midday, when bands
normally break up some.

Much of the rest of week will feature mainly dry conditions,
but chances from time for some light precipitation. First
such system would be late Tuesday, mainly across the southwest
PA.

Outlook...

Tue-Friday...Chance of a shower, but overall mainly dry
much of the time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ004-005-
010.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ006-011-
017.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Colbert/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Bauco
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
AVIATION...Martin