828
FXUS61 KCTP 281856
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
256 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added daily high temperature records for October 29th

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain-free and mild conditions through the end of October

2) Fire weather concerns increasing by Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions through the end of
October

Latest model guidance indicates the lengthy dry spell will last
through Halloween and probably into the first few days of
November. There appears to be a modest multi-model/ensemble
signal building toward the possibility of a frontal type heavy
rain/wind event sometime during the second half of next week
around the Nov. 5-7th timeframe.

In the meantime, early morning fog/low clouds give way to a very
warm afternoon Thursday with max temps challenging daily records
in some locations (+10-20 degrees above the historical average).

October 29th also marks two historic weather events to impact
central Pennsylvania in the past 15 years: Sandy in 2012 and the
Snowstorm in 2011.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Fire weather concerns increasing by Friday

It has been almost two weeks since we`ve received any measurable
rainfall across Central PA. The combination of drying fuels,
increasing leaf litter, and low humidity air could result in an
elevated risk of wildfire spread Friday and Saturday. Friday
will be breezy in the wake of a cold front with marginally low
afternoon RH values and max gusts forecast in the 20-25 mph
range. PA Bureau of Forestry partners have indicated fuels are
now sufficiently dry to support the issuance of a wildfire
spread statement /if needed/ for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail into tonight with high clouds peeling off
the east. The guidance signal remains somewhat models for MVFR-
LIFR fog and low clouds overnight into early Thursday morning.
Therefore, have kept continuity with the previous TAF package
with the 28/18Z issuance with highest chance/confidence in
restrictions over the south central/southeast airfields.

Outlook...

Fri...A.M. IFR-MVFR ceilings north/west; bcmg VFR.

Sat-Mon...VFR most likely prevailing with some A.M. low cloud
or fog restrictions possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record highs for 10/29:

MDT 79/1946 Harrisburg ASOS
IPT 77/1945 Williamsport ASOS
AOO 77/1971 Altoona ASOS
BFD 72/1999 Bradford ASOS
STC 74/1950 State College COOP (7AM-7AM)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Steinbugl