282
FXUS61 KCTP 290536
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
136 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Chilly fall-like pattern with low humidity continues through
  the end of August
* Reinforcing cold front to bring showers late today and early
  tonight: best chance north of I-80/west of I-99
* Meteorological Fall (September 1) kicks off with continued
  pleasant and dry conditions.
* Cooler than normal temperatures likely to prevail into the
  first weekend in September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak West-Southwest low to mid level warm advection pattern
ahead of a cold front was leading to a fairly thick layer of mid
level (altocu and altostratus) clouds advancing ESE across
Central and NW PA.

A high probability for showers (some briefly MDT to HVY in
intensity) will occur across the NW Mtns through early tonight
along with some west to southwest wind gusts of around 20 kts. A
rumble or two of thunder is also possible near and to the west
of KBFD with TSRA chances falling off significantly further to
the south and east as any MU CAPE up to 500 j/kg diminishes to
negligible amounts further SE.

Rainfall will vary from a little over 0.10 to the West of KBFD
to virtually nothing to the SE of a KIPT to KUNV and KAOO line.

The SHRA should be tapered off for the CWA around 06-07Z Fri.
By the time the front arrives in the Lower Susq Fri morning,
there won`t be much moisture left and forcing will be long gone
up into NY/New England.

Colder than normal temps are expected again tonight, but not
quite as chilly as Thurs AM. Expect mins about 5F milder, thanks
to some wind and cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Behind the front on Friday...cross-lake flow of chilly air will
percolate some SHRA off the lake. But, the overall dryness of
the airmass should limit them. Most won`t make it too far into
the CWA, and chc of measurable prcip from them is very low, so
we`ve left mentions out for now.

Maxes Fri will be much cooler than Thurs. Along the NY border,
they may stay <60F. Low level downslope flow throughout the
Central Ridge and Valley region of the state may help to
preserve high temps from coming in any lower than 7-8 deg F
below normal. Any change from our current high temp forecast
over Central and Southern PA would be down by at least a few
deg F.

Under a clearing sky and a dying NW wind, the temps should get
back down to about Thurs AM`s numbers if not lower across
portions of the north western mountains.

High pressure will begin building in again late Friday night
into Saturday morning, and by afternoon Saturday expect a
prolonged return to mostly sunny skies and high temps in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure from north-central Canada will keep it (very) dry
for the second half of the weekend. The compact upper low just
to our NE will finally lift away before the start of the work
week, but troughiness remains. The sfc high should fend off
rainfall until the second half of the upcoming week. However,
low level southeast flow could make for some pesky low clouds
at times. Temps rise only slightly for the first half of the
week (maxes in the 70s and lower 80s). The next chance for rain
will not arrive until late Wednesday into Thursday as the next
spoke of the upper level trough swings down from central Canada
to bring another cold frontal passage to the Mid-Atlantic and
New England regions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Only some brief, and fairly light showers are expected for the
rest of the night, and these will wane. Left out prevailing
SHRA with reductions to vsby out of BFD, too. The SHRA look to
be transient, quick- moving and not too heavy as the dry air
infiltrates.

The cooler, moistening upslope flow in the wake of a cold front
will lead to gradually lowering CIGS overnight with a MVFR deck
for KIPT to KUNV and KAOO with IFR CIGS likely at KBFD and KJST.
LIFR stratus is expected at KBFD for several hours before
12Z. Downsloping at MDT and LNS should help dry any precip aloft
up before it reaches the ground.

Deepening vertical mixing and low-level advection of drier air
will cause a gradual rise in cloud bases into the MVFR then VFR
range at all airfields before 16Z Friday. Wind will gust into
the teens and perhaps 20KT during the time of deepest mixing
(16-20Z).

The lower clouds do appear to return Fri night for BFD and JST.
Otherwise, calm, clear skies should allow valley fog to form.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...AM valley fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Altoona set a record low temperature yesterday (8/27) of 43
degrees (45 in 1958).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Bowen
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen
AVIATION...Lambert/Dangelo
CLIMATE...Dangelo