042
FXUS61 KCTP 300123
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
923 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Slight increase in cloud cover across the east through the
  early overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered mainly light rain showers remain possible across
the east overnight, as low pressure moves slowly along the
southern New England coast. Otherwise, expect a drying trend to
wrap up the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered mainly light rain showers remain
possible across the east overnight, as low pressure moves
slowly along the southern New England coast.

A few rain showers remain possible across eastern Pennsylvania
overnight, with clearing skies farther to the west. Expect more
of the same for Thursday, with considerable cloudiness and
scattered rain showers across eastern Pennsylvania and partly
sunny skies across the west. Temperatures will be seasonable
overnight into Thursday.

Expect drier conditions for Friday and Saturday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday night into Sunday
ahead of an approaching shortwave, but there are still timing
differences regarding this feature.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cloud deck over the region continues to persist as the upper
low moves over the Mid-Atlantic region into New England this
evening. Some clearing of skies will be possible over the west,
but be brief in nature. VFR is expected to prevail overnight for
all terminals. Fog potential overall looks fairly minimal, with
HREF 10th percentile members only outlining JST for low
clouds/visibility overnight into Thursday morning. After 12Z
Thursday, widespread VFR conditions are expected; however, HREF
model guidance outlines an increasing 3000-5000ft AGL low- level
cloud deck that will bring some lower end (< 30%) potential for
MVFR ceilings towards the end of the 18Z TAF period.

Outlook...

Fri...Mainly VFR.

Sat...Mainly VFR early with increasing chances of SHRA/TSRA
later in the evening hours. Restrictions possible.

Sun...More widespread SHRA with PM TSRA possible, increased
chances of restrictions in heavier SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...AM SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions possible,
especially SE where chances for SHRA/TSRA are higher.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily maximum rainfall records were set at Johnstown and
Bradford on Tuesday, Jul 28.

JST: 1.63 inches of rain broke the record of 1.41 inches set in
1923.

BFD: 3.89 inches of rain broke the record of 2.50 inches set in
1981.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Evanego
KEY MESSAGES...Bauco/Evanego
DISCUSSION...Bauco/Evanego
AVIATION...Beaty/Bowen
CLIMATE...Colbert