562
FXUS61 KCTP 030621
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
221 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Sunny and dry for Wednesday.
* The next widespread chance for showers comes Thursday with a
  cold front.
* More showers and storms are possible on Saturday with strong
  cold front.
* Dry and cooler weather to start the next week off.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure over the area will keep it sunny and dry with light
winds again today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Southerly flow begins to increase tonight as the sfc pres
gradient tightens in advance of a cold front approaching from
the west. The moisture plume at our latitude seems to stay near
to the front and dewpoints don`t rise above 60F over central PA
(even over western PA) until after 12Z Thu. Thus POPS for PoPs
for Wed night are low, highest being toward the far west late.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main chance for any showers and storms will be on Thursday.
Best dynamics lift northeast of the area, and dewpoints not
real high, better west of the mtns, thus QPF a bit lower now.

Marginal from SPC, main issue is gusty winds.

Secondary cold front for Saturday will usher in much colder
temperatures again by later in the weekend.

Next chance of showers after this is toward next Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy valley fog is beginning to form over the region, but
similar to recent nights, confidence in fog impacting airfields
is too low to include any restrictions in most of the TAFs. The
exception is LNS, where most guidance indicates the potential
for IFR visibilities from 08Z through 13Z. Once any fog
dissipates, VFR conditions are expected through the day with
scattered fair weather cu and light southerly winds. High clouds
will begin to increase after 00Z Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Outlook...

Thu...Widespread SHRA/TSRA ahead of a cold front.

Fri...Showers lingering, mainly across the east.

Sat...Chance of SHRA with TSRA possible.

Sun...Clearing, breezy.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Martin/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Martin/Gartner
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Bauco