533
FXUS61 KCTP 301825
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
225 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry weather is expected to continue through the middle of next
  week, featuring cool nights, and warm comfortable afternoons

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broken, open-cellular cumulus clouds cover mainly northern
sections of the Commonwealth this afternoon, with cool
temperatures aloft underneath upper-level troughing. Otherwise,
it is sunny, with the ambient air mass very dry in nature.

The above described pattern will lead into a clear night, with
surface high pressure perched over the Commonwealth. There`s no
reason to believe it won`t turn chilly once again, given a dry
resident air mass and the expectation of good radiating
conditions. Our normally colder northern valleys should dip into
the 30s. With only isolated spots in McKean and Potter counties
expected to reach as low as 33-36 degrees, we have not hoisted
any Frost Advisories to this point. We`ll continue to monitor
this situation through late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Monday, although a general upper-level trough axis
will stay situated over the northeastern states, heights aloft
will generally be rising. With dry surface high pressure still
in control as well, look for more sunny days and clear nights.

Nights will be chilly, but likely not as cold as Friday or
Saturday nights. Afternoons should reach well into the 70s, with
even some lower 80s possible in the Susquehanna Valley by
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper-level, synoptic-scale configuration looks to feature
a transition towards an amplified pattern, with a building
western North American ridge axis, a deepening Great Lakes and
Midwestern trough axis, and a western Atlantic ridge. Given
consistency of our ensemble prediction systems in showing this
pattern, confidence is relatively high.

At the beginning of the period (Tuesday and Wednesday), with a
deep layer of dry air still in place and continued moderation of
daytime highs over time, minimum afternoon RH values will dip.
By Wednesday, we may also see increasing SW winds in the
boundary layer, as surface high pressure starts to push eastward
off the coast. In fact, on Wednesday, ensemble probabilities
for combined sub-30% RH and wind gusts of greater than 20 mph
are locally 30-40%. Thus, we may have to watch fire weather
parameters more closely by Wednesday, particularly given our
lack of rainfall for much of the Commonwealth in the last 2-4
weeks.

Later in the week, it is anticipated that the lower-level flow
will turn more southerly and bring increased moisture into the
region. Also, with an approaching cold front from the northwest
and deepening troughing aloft upstream (mentioned above), the
chances for showers should increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure will keep mainly clear skies and light winds
over the area through Labor Day and most likely until next
Wed.

Some clouds now and then, but not much else. For tonight,
went with VCFG at BFD after Midnight, as the earlier package
had. The airmass is quite dry for fog, and we did not have much
fog last night. Also not much rain for the month of August,
just some during the second part of the month. Therefore not
much moisture to work with at night for fog.

Perhaps some showers late Wednesday into Thursday, as a cold
front nears the area from the west.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...AM valley fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Isolated SHRA possible in the afternoon across the far
west at locations such as BFD and JST.

Thu...More in the way of widespead showers. Not much chance
of a thunderstorm at this point.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Martin