475
FXUS61 KCTP 280007
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
807 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added mention of fire weather concerns as a key message

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain-free and mild conditions will persist through the end
of October

2) Trending wetter to start November

3) Fire weather concerns may start to increase later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions will persist
through the end of October

Noon Update...
Forecast on track. No tweaks worth noting to the next 24 hrs.

Previous discussion...
In the wake of a moisture-deprived cold front last night, we`ll
see another dry day across the Commonwealth with very low
dewpoints in northeast PA. Temperatures will be cooler than
Monday, but still several degrees above normal for this time of
year. The cold front will lift north again as a warm front on
Wednesday, bringing increasing clouds but no rain chances.

Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday ahead of another
cold front and then decrease a bit into the weekend. Saturday
will be similar to Wednesday with increasing clouds but no rain.
Daytime and overnight temperatures will be +5 to +15 degrees
above average for this time of year through the weekend,
providing great conditions for trick or treat. Whether
neighborhoods are hosting beggars night on Halloween or moving
it earlier, mild and dry conditions will prevail.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending wetter to start November

After not seeing a drop of rain in nearly 2 weeks, November will
start off with a couple chances for rain. There remains some
model uncertainty, but a trough should move through the central
part of the United States early next week. This should deliver
enough upper level support to generate some accumulating
rainfall across the Commonwealth. Climate Prediction Center
outlooks lean wetter than average for the first couple of weeks
in November, though the signal is not super strong. Temperature
trends favor above normal temperatures with much higher
confidence. Notably, the monthly outlook for November begins to
take on a classic El Nino pattern with above normal
precipitation favored across the southeast US up through the
I-95 corridor and below normal precipitation for the Great
Lakes. This could set the stage for an active storm track
bringing wet conditions to the Lower Susquehanna Valley while
the northwest mountains continue their dry trend.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Fire weather concerns may start to increase later
this week.

Min RH values will be lowest this afternoon (mid 30s N to m50s S)
and rise for Wed-Thur as dew points increase thanks to return
flow as the high pressure overhead moves to the east. The winds
will pick up a bit for the same time frame and for Friday, too.
The RHs will likely drop some Friday and even further on Sat
after a cold front moves through on Friday. This reduction in
RH and increase in wind speeds could increase the risk of rapid
wildfire spread, especially when combined with any reduction in
fuel moisture. Collaboration on Fire Weather issues may be
necessary, at the least worthwhile, toward week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thin layer of high level clouds currently moving across central
Pennsylvania, generally above 25,000 ft AGL will not bring any
threat of sub-VFR conditions in the near-term through 06Z
Wednesday. Cloud decks are expected by all model guidance to
trend lower at all of central Pennsylvaia`s terminals in the
06-12Z Wednesday timeframe as a more expansive cloud deck moves
into the region overnight.

Multiple cycles of GLAMP model guidance at AOO/MDT/LNS has led
to further thought about adding some mentions of sub-VFR
conditions this cycle, with highest confidence in these
conditions occurring at AOO. At this time, have pushed AOO
towards a prolonged period of MVFR conditions with a shorter
period of IFR flight conditions based on a combination of
HREF/NBM/GLAMP model guidance. Timing on potential IFR
conditions could trend slightly longer compared to current
forecast, but increasing winds and slightly less low-level
moisture promotes fairly short duration in IFR conditions.
Further southeast at MDT/LNS, multiple cycles of GLAMP model
guidance outlined LIFR/IFR conditions; however, there is lower
(~20-30%) confidence in these conditions occurring as of the 00Z
TAF package. Minimum members of HREF ensemble guidance outlines
IFR conditions making a fairly close approach to MDT/LNS in the
10-12Z Wednesday timeframe, so this would be the timing of most
concern for aviation interests at these two airfields. After
15Z Wednesday, very high confidence in VFR conditions areawide,
with another batch of more widespread valley fog potential
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR likely, AM valley fog possible.

Fri...MVFR ceilings possible mainly in the north and west.

Sat...Mainly VFR conditions.

Sun...Light rain may lead to restrictions, VFR otherwise.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Beaty