570
FXUS61 KCTP 011220
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
820 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints/RH during the afternoon today and Tuesday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry spell continues in advance of returning summer warmth

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry spell continues in advance of returning
summer warmth

The recent stretch of dry weather continues this week as
Canadian high pressure migrates southeast from Hudson Bay off
the Carolina coast by the weekend. Enjoy the comfortable to
seasonally pleasant conditions with no rain forecast for
another 5-6 days.

A shift in the pattern will bring rising temperatures and
humidity levels for late week with summer conditions returning
into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb above early June
climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread
80-90F readings fcst Friday through Sunday.

An approaching cold front will bring an increasing chance for
scattered showers/t-storms Saturday into Sunday (max POPs on
Sunday).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR once again prevails through the 12Z TAF period, with key
messages being: post-frontal northerly breeze on Monday;
isolated afternoon showers; and easterly wind shift + increasing
cloud cover behind backdoor cold front (primarily after 00Z
Tuesday).

A weak, dry cold front will move south across the Commonwealth
tonight, bringing a light northerly wind shift and minimal
impacts. Northerly winds of up to around 10 kts are expected
Monday afternoon, with spotty gusts to 15-20 kts possible.
Diurnal heating (0-3 km lapse rates to 8-9 C/km) and cool air
aloft (700 mb temperatures around -5 C) will support an
afternoon cumulus field (SCT/BKN at 5000-8000 ft) + a few
isolated light showers. With that said, the lack of organized
lifting mechanisms in place & prohibitively dry air aloft (RH
<5% above 700 mb) limits shower coverage/certainty below 30%.

High pressure building in from the north will bring a backdoor
cold front down the Northeastern Seaboard later on Monday,
reaching the Lower Susquehanna Valley (KMDT/KLNS) by 23Z Monday
- 03Z Tuesday & continuing to the Central Mountains
(KIPT/KUNV/KAOO/KJST) later in the night. Easterly winds, some
gusts in the 15-20kt range as the front passes, and BKN/OVC
clouds will accompany this front, with ceiling restrictions to
MVFR unlikely (10-20% chance, mainly after 00Z Tuesday).

Outlook...

Mon-Fri...VFR with no significant weather. Any showers that
develop Mon/Tue will be light and spotty. Any fog very limited.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Teare/Lambrech