859
FXUS61 KCTP 251101
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
601 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Slightly milder with an 8 to 10 hour period of steady rain
  today followed by even milder conditions Wednesday with a few
  showers, along and ahead of a strong cold front
* Becoming windy and much colder Wednesday night through Friday
* Lake effect snow may result in significant Thanksgiving
  holiday travel disruptions across northwest Pennsylvania,
  while scattered snow showers and a few squalls impact the
  weather across the Central Mtns, Laurel Highlands and possibly
  the Middle Susquehanna Valley

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Overcast skies resulting in a mild night/early morning relative
to normals for late November with temps ranging from the mid
and upper 30s across the NE CWA to the low and mid 40s over the
Western Mtns and Southern Valleys where a 5-10 kt SSE breeze
developed. Radar returns we`re seeing on MRMS were almost
exclusively virga falling from uniform mid level cloud bases
around 11 KFT AGL.

Temps will be nearly steady through the mid morning hours and
highest on the southwest ridgetops where a SSEly breeze may
increase another 5 kts toward daybreak. The leading edge of a
large area of stratiform rain is likely to be pushing into the
Laurel Highlands right around sunrise Tuesday.

HREF and the consensus of deterministic models show the rain
beginning near a KELZ to KUNV and KMRB line around 16Z, then
early this afternoon across the Susq Valley - supported by
a surge of low level warm/moisture advection via 30-40kt Sswrly
850mb LLJ.

Periods of moderate intensity rainfall are possible through
this afternoon (especially across the eastern portions of the
CWA), which could slow holiday travel.

Rainfall amounts by late this evening will average between 4 and
7 tenths of an inch with locally higher amounts possible in the
8 hour period from 1pm to 9pm as the axis of the LLJ crosses
the Central Mtns and Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Steadier rain tapers to intermittent light rain/showers or
drizzle from west to east late this evening into Wednesday
morning as milder air continues to advect into the area and the
main WAA and UVVEL pushes east of the region with the LLJ.

Tonight will be very mild relative to climo with min temps
+15-20F above normal, ranging from the 40s to near 50.

The current, rather short-lived mild trend peaks Wednesday with
afternoon high temps in the 50s to low 60s range, which equate
to 10 to 20 degrees above the normal for late November.

Its worth noting that there is some uncertainty in the max
temps due to the timing of the cold front; if the front passes
earlier, temps will be lower and the 60s temps will be confined
farther southeast. Rain coverage on Wed continues to look more
limited/sparse compared to Tuesday, and likely confined right
along/ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward through CPA
during the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions turn breezy
by Wednesday afternoon with gusts 20-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty winds continue to ramp up Wednesday night, possibly
approaching wind advisory criteria with gusts nearing 45 mph.
The strong wind will direct much colder air into the area
sending temperatures plummeting Wednesday night through
Thanksgiving Day.

Blustery post-frontal flow is expected through late week with
peak gusts 35-45 mph range Thursday and Friday. Wind chills
Thanksgiving morning are fcst in the low teens to mid 20s and
will be even colder in the +single digits and upper teens for
Black Friday morning shoppers.

The low level wind trajectory will shift from WSW to WNW
Wednesday night through Friday - triggering lake effect snow
downwind of Lake Erie. Several inches of snow accumulation and
significant travel disruptions are possible - particularly
across the NW snowbelts. A winter storm watch for heavy lake
effect snow (6" or more) was issued for Warren and McKean
counties where confidence in warning criteria snow is 50-80% per
WPC WSO (in collaboration with CLE and BUF). The combination of
heavy snow and blustery winds could also result in blowing and
drifting snow. The heaviest snow looks to be from late Thursday
afternoon into Friday afternoon.

Some heavier snow showers/squalls are possible farther inland
reaching Interstates 80/99 on Friday as the flow aligns from
the WNW. Some localized hazardous travel conditions are
possible in sudden bursts of snow causing quick reductions in
visibility and snow accumulation on roadways.

The lake effect snow pattern should end Friday night thanks to
backing llvl flow and 1030mb high pressure sliding eastward from
the Ohio Valley, producing a lowering subsidence inversion.
Gusty winds should also relax by Saturday morning. A short break
or lull in precip is most likely Saturday/Saturday night based
on the NBM and GFS/EC models.

There is still some uncertainty with speed/timing, but overall
guidance agrees in returning precip to the area on Sunday.
Thermal profiles appear to be cold enough to initially support
a mixed ptype transitioning to rain for the last day of
November. Unsettled weather will continue into early next week
as cold air in the middle of the country sets up a strong
baroclinic zone over the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Looking at VFR conditions early this morning with mid and high
clouds.

Earlier discussion below.

Main change was to bump winds up overnight and on Tuesday,
given that the winds are already gusty across the west, and
the pressure gradient tightens today.

Winds likely to weaken some after dark this evening, as the
pressure gradient weakens.

Showers will overspread the area after sunrise today,
with MVFR to IFR restrictions later this afternoon and into the
evening hours, as rain cools the airmass. Borderline for LLWS.
Left LLWS out for now.

The rain will remain widespread through Tuesday night before
tapering off into scattered rain on Wednesday. A cold front will
come through Wednesday night bringing gusty winds and the
possibility of lake effect snow across the NW through Friday.

The lake effect and upslope snow could become more widespread
into the Laurel Highlands (i.e. JST) as one heads further out
in time, i.e. on Friday. UNV and AOO could see some flurries
and snow showers as well. This based on winds shifting more
to west to northwest, from the west southwest direction. Often
this takes some time, as the warm lakes tend to modify the
wind fields.

Outlook...

Wed...Breezy with intermittent rain showers; becoming windy
with sharp CFROPA Wed night with gusts >30kt from 240-270 deg.

Thu-Fri...Windy with gusts 30-35kt from 270-300 degrees.
Frequent snow showers over the NW 1/2 of the airspace.

Sat...Improving conditions/lighter winds with snow showers
ending downwind of Lake Erie.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
evening for PAZ004-005.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Martin/Bowen